Research Briefing
First-quarter GDP is tracking weakly at 1% annualized, but we think a lot of the swings in the data are...
US Elections 2024
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Research Briefing
For many households, tax refunds represent the biggest cash-flow event of the year. It's early, but we think this will...
Research Briefing
The new US tariffs add an additional layer of drag on Asian manufacturing activities. India will be one of the...
Research Briefing
We think the immediate tariffs on China will have spillovers to some other Asian economies, while the threat of reciprocal...
Research Briefing
We see little evidence that inflation will take a significant turn for the worse, which suggests that the risks of...
Research Briefing
The risks to our participation rate forecast are numerous and largely weighted to the downside, implying unemployment could fall further.
Research Briefing
US President Donald Trump has announced or threatened a range of fresh tariffs in recent weeks. While we expect the...
Tariff-induced price increases call into question tightly integrated supply chains across North America and make large swathes of exports less...
Research Briefing
The United States has introduced an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports as part of the opening round of the...
Research Briefing
Concerns that the Trump administration would abandon climate policies were confirmed within hours of returning to office.
Research Briefing
With US President Trump's persistent tariff threats, a US-Canada trade war now appears likely.
Research Briefing
The narrative surrounding policymaking and its near-term economic impact has shifted dramatically from the January to February baseline forecast.
Research Briefing
Related Services US Forecasting Service Access to short- and long-term analysis, scenarios and forecasts for the US economy. Find Out...
Research Briefing
Our analysis of industry and trade structure between the US and Japan reveals the auto and non-electrical machinery sectors are...
Research Briefing
We have incorporated a 10% blanket tariff by the US and immediate retaliation by the EU in our forecast for...
Research Briefing
Donald Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is a symbolic step back from global climate cooperation. However, we don't think...
Research Briefing
President Trump launched the first salvo in what will like turn into another global trade war. A 10% additional tariff...
Research Briefing
A blanket 25% tariff on Canadian imports to the US could have a significant impact on commodity prices, squeeze profit...
Research Briefing
US President Donald Trump's announcement of an additional 10% tariff on imports from China was in line with our baseline expectation. But the immediacy of implementation, the blanket style of tariffs, and the inclusion...
Tariff-induced price increases call into question tightly integrated supply chains across North America and make large swathes of exports less...
