Calgary, Saint John, and Windsor are the Canadian metros most vulnerable to Trump’s tariffs

We are in a new and highly uncertain era of the US-Canada trade relationship. President Trump’s now-postponed executive order imposing across-the-board tariffs on all Canadian goods imported into the US, and his more recent announcement of tariffs targeting steel and aluminum imports, are threatening to disrupt one of the largest bilateral trade relationships in the world.

We have written extensively about the potential national-level impact of a US-Canada trade war on the Canadian economy. But within Canada, certain provinces and metros are more at risk than others, although there is still much uncertainty surrounding the current trade environment. The likelihood of further last-minute deals, exceptions to be carved out for certain goods, and Canada’s retaliation to US tariffs all have the potential to significantly alter the impact of the tariffs. The fallout of blanket US tariffs and Canadian counter-tariffs would plunge Canada into a recession with economy-wide disruptions, affecting non-traded sectors such as discretionary services as well. Using our Canadian Province and Metro Service forecasts and trade data from Statistics Canada, we have identified the provinces and metros most vulnerable to Trump’s tariffs.

Alberta and New Brunswick are the provinces most exposed to US trade

At the provincial level, Alberta and New Brunswick are the most directly vulnerable to a US-Canada trade war. Exports to the US comprised over 30% of their GDP in 2023, far higher than other provinces, and over 90% of exports from both were destined for the US. The majority of exported goods were energy related in both provinces. In Alberta, oil & gas extraction accounted for over 50% of exports, while in New Brunswick (which has the largest oil refinery in Canada), petroleum and coal product manufacturing accounted for over 60% of exports. And although the US is a net exporter of oil, it still imports much of the oil it consumes. Our estimates show that 72% of all US fuel imports in 2024 came from Canada. This explains why in President Trump’s original executive order imposing tariffs on Canada, energy goods face 10% tariffs, rather than the 25% rate on all other goods. This may partially reduce the burden on these provinces, but given the large contribution of energy exports to Alberta’s and New Brunswick’s economies, the damage would still be significant.

The provinces that face the least economic disruption from US tariffs are Nova Scotia and British Columbia, as exports to the US accounted for less than 10% of GDP in 2023 in both. However, given the considerable integration between the US and Canadian economies, even the least affected provinces will still feel the impact of any tariffs. In Nova Scotia, nearly 70% of total exports were destined for the US, while for Canada as a whole, this figure rises to 77%.

Exports to the US account for over half of GDP in Calgary, Saint John, and Windsor

Three Canadian metros are particularly vulnerable to US tariffs. Our estimates suggest that over 60% of GDP in Calgary, Saint John, and Windsor is tied to exports destined for the US. Calgary has the highest US export value of any Canadian metro, at an estimated C$114 billion in 2023. This is largely due to the fact that much of the oil Alberta exports to the US is owned by energy companies based in Calgary. Similarly, New Brunswick’s oil refinery activities are based in Saint John, which makes this smaller metro particularly susceptible to any energy-related US tariffs.

Windsor, on the other hand, plays a major role in Canada’s auto manufacturing sector, which is another sector set to be hit hard by tariffs. Not only do Stellantis and Ford both have plants in the metro, but over 85% of Windsor’s exported goods are from the manufacturing sector. The city also plays another important role in Canada-US trade, as it sits directly across the border from Detroit, Michigan. The Ambassador Bridge, connecting the two cities, is the busiest crossing along the Canada-US border and over a quarter of Canada’s exports leave the country at this crossing. But a trade war would also have downstream effects on the transport sector of many Canadian metros. Fewer goods being shipped would mean less activity for freight trucking, air and rail transportation, and oil pipelines, harming the economies of Canada’s transport hubs, like Windsor.

Canada’s two largest cities, Toronto and Montreal, also have significant US exports in value terms (C$89 billion and C$45 billion, respectively). But as a share of their economies, these exports play a less important role than elsewhere, due to their large domestic business and consumer sectors. Canada’s third-largest city, Vancouver, appears to be relatively well insulated from US tariffs. Unlike Toronto and Montreal, it does not have much of a manufacturing sector, and only 5% of its GDP is linked to exports to the US.

The sectoral structure of a city’s exports will play a key role in shaping the potential disruption from tariffs. In St. John’s and Calgary, over half of exports come from the extraction sector. If President Trump were to keep to his original executive order of imposing 10% tariffs on energy goods—rather than the 25% rate on all other goods—this could partially reduce the burden on these metros. Conversely, the recently announced tariffs targeting steel and aluminum would disproportionately affect metros such as Montreal and Saguenay. Finally, southern Ontario metros with large auto plants such as Windsor and Oshawa will be hoping that the auto industry can lobby the Trump administration to carve out exemptions to tariffs for the highly integrated auto manufacturing sector. The exact nature of any US tariffs, and the sectors targeted or exempted, will influence the degree to which different metros are affected.

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