US supply chains remain resilient despite tariff chaos

What you will learn:

• Our latest supply-chain stress index showed a few signs that frontloading ahead of tariffs is causing some disruptions, but they’re not enormous. The concern is that congestion issues could intensify as tariff threats have caused a significant increase in trade policy uncertainty.
• December’s reading showed conditions eased to their lowest level since March 2024, thanks to declines in air freight prices and slowed manufacturing wage growth. With congestion issues minimal as well, there is little inflationary risk from supply chains.
• Businesses will continue to frontload shipments, which could increase supply-chain stress in the near term. We expect inventory buildup to contribute 0.25ppts-0.4ppts to GDP growth each quarter of 2025.

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