City Scenarios
Developing bespoke city and regional scenarios to test and inform business plans, investment strategies and policy development
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Customised for you
Leverage our suite of models and the expertise of our economists to develop scenarios for cities and regions.
Identify locations most sensitive to shocks
Quantify how upside and downside macroeconomic risks will affect individual cities and regions.
Quantify the impact of emerging trends
Assess how alternative paths of demographic change, working patterns, and consumer behaviour might impact cities and regions.
Evaluate the impact of policy changes
Examine how growth prospects will be impacted by the adoption of local economic development plans and strategies.
Stress testing
Use our models to generate city scenarios to meet regulatory requirements associated with stress testing and IFRS9/CECL.
How do custom scenarios help me?
Rigorous "what if?" analysis
Taken together, our models provide a set of tools for conducting rigorous “what if” scenario analysis, which we can use to:
- Test the robustness of your business plans or investment strategies
Analyse the implications of public policy changes on the performance of the local economy - Consider the risks involved in entering a new market
- Contribute to risk planning and mitigation exercises
Key themes for cities in 2022
Against a helpful macroeconomic background, albeit with risks, city economies will continue to recover in 2022. GDP growth will mostly be slower than in 2021, but with some cities accelerating (Amsterdam, Madrid), and/or seeing faster rises in employment and consumer spending.
“The Oxford Economics team carried out our macroeconomic port trade forecast out to 2050. The team was highly capable, worked with us closely, took on board feedback from internal and external stakeholders and we are very confident in the product. The Oxford Economics brand carries credibility in the market.”
“We were drawn to working with Oxford Economics for its solid reputation and the strength of its research, and we’ve been particularly impressed with your ability to present this to governments and the media – it’s the reason we’d look for future opportunities to work together.”
Resources and Events
Research Briefing
European cities face a tough winter as recession spreads
Research Briefing
Eight of top 20 US metros to see marginal GDP declines in 2023
Research Briefing
US headquarter job growth eases pain for struggling metros
Research Briefing
Several but not all southern metros look very strong
Webinar
Is sterling in the midst of a sell-off or a full-blown crisis?
Webinar
Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for fragile African sovereigns?
Webinar
Positioning for a shallow recession
Webinar
Europe’s energy crisis: Will the EU survive this winter without Russian gas?
Webinar
Rising risk of a higher inflation ‘regime’
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