Key themes for cities in 2022
Against a helpful macroeconomic background, albeit with risks, city economies will continue to recover in 2022. GDP growth will mostly be slower than in 2021, but with some cities accelerating (Amsterdam, Madrid), and/or seeing faster rises in employment and consumer spending.
What you will learn:
- One area where the evidence is pretty reliable is the visitor economy. We expect visitor numbers to rise quite slowly, especially in Asia Pacific.
- The debate about the future of the office will shift during the year from the return to the office, to whether office jobs are at risk from automation and artificial intelligence.
- Exposure to climate change and the challenge of net zero will also be growing themes, but reluctance to act may persist even in the face of disastrous events.
Japan Key themes 2024 – Will wage-led inflation gain momentum?
Inflation will likely decelerate in 2024 as the impact of imported inflation wanes. We expect the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy in April after confirming a high wage settlement. But our medium-term projection is that a zero-interest rate policy will take its place and last for years.Find Out More
Africa Watchlist 2024: Devaluations, coups, and green hydrogen
Next year holds promise for the dawning of a new industry in Africa and somewhat of a commercial renaissance taking place in Kenya – East Africa’s economic anchor. Our watchlist for 2024 also foregrounds major currency devaluations in Ethiopia and Egypt and a strong probability of coups d’état in Cameroon and Tunisia. We expect support for the African National Congress (ANC) to drop below 50% in South Africa's general elections, but that coalitions with smaller parties will allow the ruling party to cling to power.Find Out More