Our latest downside scenario reflects slightly less negative outturns for world exports relative to March when pessimism around trade was...
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Research Briefing
Our probability of recession models showed marked improvement in September, reversing much of the recent rise. Against this backdrop, our...
While our short-term outlook for the global economy has largely remained steady over the past quarter, the balance of risks...
We have developed a globally consistent framework showing cross-country GDP vulnerabilities to an escalation in China-Taiwan tensions, factoring in three...
Research Briefing
US business profit margins will remain elevated through 2025, with a boost from higher investments of recent years, despite challenges...
Research Briefing
We continue to forecast growth in global construction activity over 2023, albeit at a slower rate than we anticipated at...
Research Briefing
Business perceptions of the key threats to the global economy have shifted significantly, based on our latest Global Risk Survey....
Research Briefing
Our estimates suggest that the surge in aggregate bank profitability may continue in the near term, but the outlook remains...
Research Briefing
We expect eurozone house prices will continue to slide through 2023 following back-to-back declines in Q1 2023 and Q4 2022....
Research Briefing
Following the failed coup in Russia over the weekend, we will not change our forecasts for GDP nor make significant changes to our commodity price forecasts. However, it highlights the...
As China finally becomes the last major economy to dismantle its Zero Covid restrictions and fully opens its borders, governments...
Research Briefing
We expect the structural shift to working from home to continue to negatively impact the US office sector over the...
Oxford Economics is excited to announce the launch of our City Climate Scenario service, designed to help businesses and governments...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress continued to ease in February despite stronger-than-expected economic growth. Supply chains could return to pre-pandemic conditions by...
Research Briefing
The recent turmoil in US bank funding will likely feed into tighter lending standards to commercial property, dampening the outlook...
Research Briefing
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other stresses in the global banking system have triggered a sharp repricing in...
Research Briefing
US authorities appear to have contained the fallout from the collapse of two regional banks – Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)...
Research Briefing
The failure of two US banks caught financial markets by surprise but we believe the macroeconomic implications are minor and...
Research Briefing
We think the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) will be contained and is not a sign of systemic risks...
Research Briefing
The latest Beige Book revealed an economy that on balance was treading water heading into 2023.
