Research Briefing | Jun 28, 2023

Will failed mutiny impact Russia’s economic outlook?

Russia: Failed mutiny has limited economic implications

The failed coup in Russia over the weekend has further exposed the ineptitude of the Russian top military command and raised questions of private troops’ loyalty to the regime. How Russian leadership tackles these issues in the coming days and weeks could affect the course of the Ukraine war. Meanwhile, the event highlights the risk of further commodity price shocks in the event of a more prolonged rebellion or destabilisation in Russia.

What you will learn:

  • Will the failed mutiny impact Russia’s GDP outlook?
  • The mutiny ended through negotiations within 24 hours of its beginning, but the spectacle of the Wagner convoy covering hundreds of kilometres of the Russian hinterland within hours has raised questions regarding the regime’s ability to hold on to power.
  • The rebellion has highlighted the ineptitude of the Russian top military command and raised questions of private troops’ loyalty to the regime. Whether or not Russian leadership will address these issues in the coming days and weeks may influence the course of the Ukraine war.
Back to Resource Hub

Related posts

Post

Analysing the German construction industry’s supply chains

The supply chain disruptions triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, the blockade of the Suez Canal, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine were historically unique for Germany’s construction sector. Our research showed how these supply chain disruptions affected construction companies in various ways and identified strategies to help overcome them.

Find Out More

Post

Friend or foe? Foreign policy takes centre stage

South Africa's preparations for the 15th Brics Summit in August, which the country is hosting, have been overshadowed by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the warrant of arrest it issued for one of the expected attendees, Russia's President Vladimir Putin, on charges of war crimes. Domestic and foreign critics have accused Pretoria of being much too cosy with Moscow, notwithstanding official assurances that South Africa is neutral in the Russia/Ukraine conflict, and Washington's ambassador to the country caused a diplomatic storm in May when he claimed that South Africa had supplied Russia with weapons. Denials have since given way to a diplomatic charm offensive with South African officials trying to temper the concerns of the country's Western partners, who account for much of its trade, and its Brics partners, who are poised to welcome new members.

Find Out More

Post

Energy Digital: Natural gas: A post-war outlook

Toby Whittington, Lead Economist at Oxford Economics, shares an op-ed to delves into the impact of losing Russian gas and how we must look towards the prospect of securing new supplies.

Find Out More