Research Briefing
Household spending rose in June, driven by EOFY sales, but subdued per capita growth and labour market softness reinforce expectations...
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Research Briefing
Rate cuts by the European Central Bank over the course of 2025 may not boost growth to the same degree...
Research Briefing
We see little evidence that inflation will take a significant turn for the worse, which suggests that the risks of...
Research Briefing
Related Posts Downside risks for Asian industrial real estate markets The ‘liberation day’ tariffs have been postponed, but the existing...
Research Briefing
Our nowcast suggests October's headline and core PCE inflation will be at their fastest monthly pace in six months and...
Research Briefing
Treasuries have stumbled since the Federal Open Market Committee's aggressive 50bp rate cut in September, but our baseline longer-term outlook...
Research Briefing
The spotlight focused on this week’s consumer price report to see if it raises more questions about the Fed’s decision...
Research Briefing
Our nowcast of the US PCE deflators imply inflation is not falling as smoothly as we had anticipated. But it...
Research Briefing
The economy slowed following the strong gains in the second half of last year, as it settled into a more...
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast for policy rates is consistent with central bankers continuing to focus almost exclusively on inflation. Their laser-like...
Research Briefing
After getting carried away at the turn of the year with the likely extent of Federal Reserve rate cuts in...
Research Briefing
Our new forecast assumes a slower euro appreciation against the dollar over the coming years than we previously anticipated. Relative...
Research Briefing
Odds are that there will not be anything from the upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee that would...
Research Briefing
We forecast Bank Indonesia will start cutting its policy rate in Q2, which will provide a cyclical tailwind for credit...
Research Briefing
This year is set to be a turning point for commercial property markets in the US. A gradual easing of...
Research Briefing
Our suite of nowcasting models corroborates our tepid near-term expectations for the hibernating eurozone economy, indicating Q1 growth will come...
Research Briefing
Inflation has fallen sharply in advanced economies over the past year, and we expect central banks to start cutting interest...
Research Briefing
Presidential elections not only have major implications for the future path of fiscal policy and the macroeconomic outlook, but they...
Research Briefing
The odds of a recession have declined over the past several months because of a strong labor market, a deceleration...
Our risk sentiment indicator is flashing red once again following the sharp end-of-year equity rally. In this week’s Beyond the...
