Research Briefing | Oct 11, 2024

US PCE nowcast shows bumpy path down for inflation

Our nowcast of the US PCE deflators imply inflation is not falling as smoothly as we had anticipated. But it still suggests inflation is on a path, albeit bumpy, back to 2%. In our view, the combination of a resilient labor market and inflation receding in fits and starts is consistent with a measured pace of Fed rate cuts ahead.

What you will learn:

  • We estimate headline PCE rose 0.18% m/m in September and the core index 0.25%, only marginally less than the gains in CPI. Despite relying on different source data, stronger medical care inflation and airfares is responsible for most of the rise in PCE, as it was in the CPI data.
  • Our estimates imply that headline PCE inflation will fall to 2.1% in September from 2.2% and core PCE inflation to 2.6% from 2.7%.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL)

Service

US Forecasting Service

Access to short- and long-term analysis, scenarios and forecasts for the US economy.

Find Out More
washington, united states

Service

US Industry Service

Outlook for 261 detailed sectors in the NAICS classification.

Find Out More

Service

US States and Metro Service

Forecasts, scenarios and analysis for US states, metropolitan statistical areas and counties.

Find Out More