Research Briefing
We now believe that the Bank of Japan will wait until January to hike the policy rate. We previously assumed...
Policy Rates
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Research Briefing
Central and Eastern European economies are among the most exposed to the impact of Trump policies due to their large,...
Research Briefing
We believe that recent jitters about US growth prospects are overdone. While US GDP growth will slow a bit, we...
Research Briefing
We estimate that Japan's nominal neutral interest rate – the rate consistent with monetary policy that is neither stimulative nor...
Research Briefing
A return to the sustained 'lowflation' of the 2010s is unlikely, in our view. But we also doubt that the...
Research Briefing
The outlook for the global economy has improved since the previous quarter’s Global Scenarios Service report and a soft landing...
Research Briefing
We now project that the Bank of Japan will start to raise its policy rate next spring assuming another robust...
Despite the upgrade to our global economic outlook since December 2023, the Q1 update of our IFRS 9 and CECL...
Research Briefing
Our analysis of Banxico's reaction function reaffirms our forecast that the policy rate will end the year at 8.25% –...
Research Briefing
After the sharp falls in eurozone inflation recently, a series of rate cuts this year by the European Central Bank...
Research Briefing
The commercial real estate landscape has undergone considerable changes due to the recent surge in interest rates and emerging funding...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan left both short-term and long-term policy rates unchanged at Tuesday's meeting as widely expected. The BoJ...
We believe the Canadian economy has slipped into a moderate recession that will create slack, ease price pressures and help...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan left both short-term and long-term policy rates unchanged at Tuesday's meeting. Amid a decline in global...
Research Briefing
After a difficult 2023, we think five key themes will shape the outlook for commercial real estate next year.
Research Briefing
With the US Fed expected to remain on hold for a prolonged period, rate decisions in Asia are likely to...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left short- and long-term policy rates unchanged at -0.1% and around 0%, respectively, at the...
We've recently revised up our forecasts for US and UK bond yields in the long term by 50 basis points;...
Research Briefing
We have revised our forecasts up for bond yields in the long term by 50bps in the US and UK and by 20 to 25 bps in Japan and Germany....
Research Briefing
The recent banking sector turmoil could trigger a chain reaction of events that plunges the global economy into recession. However,...
