Research Briefing
The September jobs data report and the August JOLTS offered some signs of a loosening in labor market conditions. Job...
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Research Briefing
The question of debt restructuring is becoming a more pressing one: in recent weeks, a number of African sovereigns have...
Research Briefing
Ecuador is no longer on track towards meeting the criteria imposed on it by the IMF to keep its US$6.4bn...
Research Briefing
After several days of huge UK financial market volatility, the BoE intervened at the long end of the gilt market...
Research Briefing
We do not expect a long-lasting rebound in sterling (or gilts) anytime soon, given the lack of a credible fiscal...
Research Briefing
Businesses continue to downgrade their expectations for the global economy, based on our latest survey of risk perceptions. On average,...
Research Briefing
South Africa faces a serious risk of being 'grey listed' by the international Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which will...
Oxford Economics launches our Global Risk Service, a suite of data-driven and forward-looking tools that measure macro-economic and financial crises...
Research Briefing
We are concerned about the prospect of distressed sovereigns dragging down their domestic banking systems. We identify an extraordinarily high...
Research Briefing
According to early estimates, Ukraine's GDP experienced a 40%-45% contraction in March in the wake of Russia's invasion. In our...
Research Briefing
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US and EU announced harsh new sanctions, including banning some Russian banks from SWIFT...
Research Briefing
Our Watchlist 2022 looks at developments that could potentially become the main African themes of next year. We look at...
Research Briefing
Canada entered the pandemic with historically elevated household debt, and a C$193bn surge in mortgage borrowing during the pandemic has...
Research Briefing
Civil war in Ethiopia has put the country on a different developmental trajectory. International and regional stakeholders cautioned that Ethiopia...
Research Briefing
Ethiopia has declared a state of emergency as the government confronts an amalgamation of forces from the Tigray People's Liberation...
Research Briefing
It’s not runaway inflation, and it’s certainly not stagflation. In fact, the US economy is going through a bout of...
Research Briefing
Necessity and opportunity allowed African issuers to expand their public debt positions markedly since the Covid-19 pandemic hit. The sharp...
Research Briefing
While the potential collapse of Chinese property firm Evergrande matters, it doesn’t signal a ‘Lehman moment’ that might spark global...
Research Briefing
We expect Latin America to return to low trend growth in 2022, as policysupport is withdrawn and the easy gains...
Research Briefing
The Evergrande saga has shone a spotlight on the Chinese real estate sector. News that the company may miss loan...
