Africa Watchlist 2022
Our Watchlist 2022 looks at developments that could potentially become the main African themes of next year. We look at the potential of a unilateral declaration of independence by Tigray in Ethiopia and a French withdrawal from Mali. We also discuss the prospect of South Africans enduring unprecedented levels of electricity supply disruptions and look into some potential currency surprises.
What you will learn:
- If France redeploys its Operation Barkhane troops to Niger from Mali, violence and smuggling will increase in the three-borders area, Ecowas will lose influence and radical opposition to the governments of Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire will increase.
- If South Africa’s electricity generation fleet were to experience one too many unplanned breakdowns in terms of large capacity losses, the system would teeter on the brink of a full blackout, which would necessitate unprecedented electrical power rationing.
- If EM sentiment were to weaken, the Egyptian pound could become one of next year’s major exchange rate losers. In turn, if copper prices prove to be resilient, the Zambian kwacha could be next year’s major currency surprise.
US: High debt costs suggest an industrial correction
The scale of the increases in debt costs, coupled with the low-yielding environment makes some repricing highly likely for gateway US industrial markets over the coming quarters.Find Out More
High debt costs suggest European office price correction
Our analysis suggests a 10% correction is needed on average for the major office markets in Europe to compensate for the higher cost of debt, with prime yields required to soften by 10bps-75bps to generate a low-risk interest coverage ratio at a reasonable LTV.Find Out More