Research Briefing | Nov 19, 2021

Africa | Country Economic Forecast Ethiopia

Copy of Ipad Frame (4)

Ethiopia has declared a state of emergency as the government confronts an amalgamation of forces from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and other groups. Originally fashioned as a swift operation to bring a rebellious regional administration in line, the war dragged on and has now engulfed the north of the country. Developments on the security front to dictate the pace and direction of economic growth.

What you will learn:

  • Plunging household expenditure, weaker business consumption and investment, and a weaker trade position will be buttressed by government consumption and key infrastructure projects.
  • Our revised medium-term growth outlook now reflects expectations for a fragile, haphazard recovery characterised by weakening household consumption, volatile private investment and a widening net trade shortfall.
  • Tigrayan leadership may be in favour of pushing for increased autonomy or even secession over pursuing a ‘military victory’.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Seoul, South Korea

Post

BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends

Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.

Find Out More
China Shenzhen skyline

Post

Why China isn’t about to save the world economy

The earlier and faster than expected ending of zero-Covid restrictions in China bodes well for the global economy and adds to the recent run of positive news.

Find Out More