Research Briefing | Nov 19, 2021

Africa | Country Economic Forecast Ethiopia

Copy of Ipad Frame (4)

Ethiopia has declared a state of emergency as the government confronts an amalgamation of forces from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and other groups. Originally fashioned as a swift operation to bring a rebellious regional administration in line, the war dragged on and has now engulfed the north of the country. Developments on the security front to dictate the pace and direction of economic growth.

What you will learn:

  • Plunging household expenditure, weaker business consumption and investment, and a weaker trade position will be buttressed by government consumption and key infrastructure projects.
  • Our revised medium-term growth outlook now reflects expectations for a fragile, haphazard recovery characterised by weakening household consumption, volatile private investment and a widening net trade shortfall.
  • Tigrayan leadership may be in favour of pushing for increased autonomy or even secession over pursuing a ‘military victory’.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

Macro impact of Trump’s tariffs on the UK shouldn’t be overstated

Our baseline forecast assumes that President-elect Trump won't increase tariffs on US imports from the UK. In fact, the main impact on the UK outlook from Trump's victory comes from stronger global demand stoked by looser US fiscal policy.

Find Out More

Post

China strategising for a second Trump term

US tariffs under a Trump presidency and a Republican-led Congress are a major concern for China. However, we expect additional US tariffs wouldn't be implemented until as late as 2026 and the effects could be mitigated early on by expansionary fiscal policy in the US.

Find Out More