Research Briefing | Nov 19, 2021

Africa | Country Economic Forecast Ethiopia

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Ethiopia has declared a state of emergency as the government confronts an amalgamation of forces from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and other groups. Originally fashioned as a swift operation to bring a rebellious regional administration in line, the war dragged on and has now engulfed the north of the country. Developments on the security front to dictate the pace and direction of economic growth.

What you will learn:

  • Plunging household expenditure, weaker business consumption and investment, and a weaker trade position will be buttressed by government consumption and key infrastructure projects.
  • Our revised medium-term growth outlook now reflects expectations for a fragile, haphazard recovery characterised by weakening household consumption, volatile private investment and a widening net trade shortfall.
  • Tigrayan leadership may be in favour of pushing for increased autonomy or even secession over pursuing a ‘military victory’.
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