Research Briefing | Nov 19, 2021

Africa Country Insight: Ethiopia

Civil war in Ethiopia has put the country on a different developmental trajectory. International and regional stakeholders cautioned that Ethiopia is facing a “narrowing window” to find a diplomatic solution to the ongoing conflict, as territorial gains by the opposition coalition and military campaigns across multiple regional states now pose risks to regional stability.

What you will learn:

  • The TPLF may look to consolidate advances and possibly shift its focus to capturing transportation links between Addis Ababa and Djibouti.
  • Uncertainty surrounding the post-Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) fiscal outlook poses substantial downside risk to the invisibles position.
  • Set against a backdrop of a thin reserve buffer, eroding FDI appeal and collapse in grant support, the odds of a balance of payments event and credit default event have increased.
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