Research Briefing
Even though incoming hard data on eurozone industry is still downbeat, leading indicators suggest that we're at a turning point....
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Research Briefing
As 2024 progresses global industrial activity should pick up and begin to rebuild some momentum. In annual terms, we expect...
Research Briefing
Emerging market (EM) central banks' credibility to restrain inflation over the medium-term horizon remains intact despite the tests it's been...
Oxford Economics set the stage for the year ahead, at our inaugural Global Economic Outlook Conference, in London on Wednesday,...
Research Briefing
After the sharp falls in eurozone inflation recently, a series of rate cuts this year by the European Central Bank...
Research Briefing
The economy is weakening, but the incoming data are consistent with a slowdown rather than a technical recession.
Research Briefing
2023 has been a turbulent year for global industry, with growth on track to come in lower than any other...
Research Briefing
The chip sector is profoundly important in some Asian countries, given their role in the global semiconductor supply chain. As...
Research Briefing
We project the distribution of long-term economic pain inflicted by Covid will be similar to humans in the sense that those with pre-existing conditions will end up suffering the most.
Research Briefing
The relative resilience of G7 output in the face of aggressive rate hikes is partly due to the surprising strength...
Research Briefing
Our latest scenario analysis suggests that the global economy would falter in the event of an escalation of the Israel-Hamas...
Research Briefing
We see the recent increase in term premia as explainable by the ongoing retreat of price insensitive foreign buyers, structurally...
Research Briefing
We have revised our forecasts up for bond yields in the long term by 50bps in the US and UK and by 20 to 25 bps in Japan and Germany....
Research Briefing
While the economy has expanded throughout 2023, uncertainty remains high and we are not ready to remove a recession from...
Research Briefing
The data this week have done little to change the picture of an economy that remains resilient and a labor...
Research Briefing
We estimate that the ECB's job of taming elevated inflation will feature an unfavourable trade-off due to the uneven sectoral...
Research Briefing
Emerging market (EM) central banks' credibility to restrain inflation over the medium-term horizon remains intact despite the tests it's been...
Research Briefing
After decades of outperforming the broader economy, growth in tech spending by US businesses has become much more dependent on...
After stalling in Q4, the Canadian economy likely grew modestly in Q1. Labour markets have also shown impressive resilience, with...
Research Briefing
Eurozone central banks became unprofitable last year, and near-term operational losses are likely to persist as banks exit the accommodative...
