Starting in 2025, the cruise industry could enter a similar cycle for rebuilding the orderbook as the number of cruise ships due to launch will decrease drastically.
Yu Sato
Despite today’s (28th July) surprise tweak to YCC policy, we continue to believe that Governor Ueda is determined to avoid premature tightening and will spend another year or so to carefully assess whether the economy is on track to achieve 2% inflation within his five-year term.
We believe Indonesia’s strategy to move up the electric vehicle supply chain by restricting its mineral exports and inviting more investment should pay dividends for growth.
This report evaluates the total contribution of Drax Power Station to the UK economy, the UK’s constituent nations and regions, and the Selby and Ainsty parliamentary constituency.
China’s major cities will be primary drivers of office-based employment growth over the next five years, with 15 of the largest cities set to create more than a third of all new office jobs across the country.
We think that a dissaving-driven consumption boom is unlikely to happen in Japan. Excess savings accumulated during the pandemic, in our view, is smaller than generally thought, and the withdrawal savings will be limited going forward.
Oxford Economics helped Accenture Research explore the potential value that could be unlocked if big businesses embraced niche innovations in “tech propelled markets” that are often get stuck at subscale for too long.
Given the amount of existing building stock that will need some level of renovations work to reduce its carbon footprint and increase its energy efficiency – 85% of buildings in the EU are over 20 years old, and out of those buildings between 85-95% will still exist in 2050 – renovations activity should serve as a major boost to total construction work done across Europe.
The European Commission’s ambition to transform Europe into the first climate neutral continent by 2050 necessitates a huge program of renovation work. This ‘renovation wave’ will drive construction activity growth in the European Union over the remainder of the decade.
Oxford Economics, Control Risks and Seerist have joined forces to develop a risk assessment framework. Underpinning our flagship product, Economic and Political Risk Evaluator (EPRE), this framework allows us and our clients to navigate the key risks that impact strategy and operations.
Following the failed coup in Russia over the weekend, we will not change our forecasts for GDP nor make significant changes to our commodity price forecasts. However, it highlights the risk of further commodity price shocks in the event of a more prolonged rebellion or destabilisation in Russia.
We have raised our aggregate GDP growth forecast for EMs in 2023 by 0.2ppts because most performed better than we had expected in Q1 and have remained resilient in Q2. That said, we have scaled back our expectations for growth in 2024 by 0.1ppt.
Our in-house financial conditions index reveals that while overall conditions are tight compared to pre-pandemic levels, Asia’s financial conditions have been improving thanks to central banks’ pause in rate hikes, lower long-term rates, and more stable currencies.
Emerging market (EM) central banks’ credibility to restrain inflation over the medium-term horizon remains intact despite the tests it’s been subjected to in an age of supply shocks and massive income disappointments.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left short-term policy rates at -0.1% and long-term rates at around 0% at today’s policy meeting. With less pressure on the 10-year JGB yield and some improvement in market functioning, the BoJ saw no reason to tweak its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy.
We now expect Bank Indonesia to start cutting the policy rate in Q4 2023, earlier than our previous expectation of Q1 2024.
In view of the surprise PBOC cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate, we now anticipate more rate cuts in Q2 and Q3.
Australian maintenance expenditure is forecast to average a record $54.5bn over the five years to FY27.
We project Japan’s CPI inflation will slow in H2 as import costs trend downward. The current record price passthrough is unsustainable given sluggish demand and firms’ weak pricing power.
China’s systemic inclinations towards a low price environment, but weak prices have raised the spectre of deflation and led to rising market expectations of rate cuts this year.
