Saarah Ghazi 
In the context of an accelerated expansion of the tech industry, and the implementation of policies like the CHIPS and Science Act, US firms are expected to demand more STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) trained professionals, at a pace that the American higher educational system will have trouble matching.
Some observers are predicting a very big uplift to global productivity and economic growth from developments in artificial intelligence. But our historical analysis of productivity growth and technological change suggests that while AI could be transformative for some sectors, it’s unlikely to shift world growth on to a markedly higher path.
Most metros have had steady GDP and job growth in 2023 but will start to see quarterly declines in Q4 or Q1 2024. All of the top 50 metros are forecast to see a slowdown in GDP growth in 2024, driven by lower finance and real estate GDP more than by other sectors.
The year ahead will be tough for Canadian metros, with a range of pressures imposed upon them. However, there are glimmers of light, and we expect GDP to rise in six of the 10 major metros. Calgary is expected to grow the fastest, while Montreal will outperform both Vancouver and Toronto.
A peak in policy rates is often a positive catalyst for equities, but there are three key reasons why we don’t think it will be in this cycle. In this week’s Beyond the Headlines, join Daniel Grosvenor, Director of Equity Strategy, as he discusses the implications of an end to the Fed’s hiking cycle.
Canada’s economy has now likely fallen into the recession that we have long been expecting. Key imbalances – highly indebted households and overvalued house prices – can’t evade the coming full impact of the Bank of Canada’s aggressive 475bps hike in the policy rate.
We still think that the US economy is headed for a slowdown at the turn of the year. Three factors will increasingly weigh on growth: the impact of past rate rises; the drag from fiscal policy; and less resilient household finances.
Fiscal rules should aim to ensure fiscal sustainability and inter-generational fairness while helping to promote longer term societal goals such as higher potential growth and the transition to net zero. In this week’s Beyond the Headlines, join Michael Saunders, Senior Economic Advisor, as he examines the UK’s three fiscal rules.
The Midwest economy has persistently underperformed, reflecting both its reliance on industrial manufacturing, but also its tendency to underperform in manufacturing, compared with other regions, and largely missing out on the tech boom.
The world economy performed better in the final months of 2022 and early 2023 than might have been expected, given the scale of the inflation and interest rate shocks it suffered. In this week’s Beyond the Headlines, join Adam Slater, Lead Economist, as he discusses global economic resilience and whether it will last.
We expect Latin America’s six largest countries’ combined GDP to expand 0.8% next year, down from our 1.8% forecast for 2023 and the consensus’ 1.4%. The dissipation of idiosyncratic shocks and less restrictive domestic policies should support a broad regional recovery in 2024 from the recessions LatAm’s major economies are in or about to enter.
Welcome to our new video series, Techonomics Talks, where we use the dynamic relationship between technology and economics to explore a variety of topics impacting tech companies and their customers today.
Nearly half of the US metros have seen a decline in working age population in recent years, including one-third of the 50 largest metros, due to a combination of out-migration and weak demographics.
We still think a mild recession is likely toward the end of this year in the US, sparked by elevated interest rates, tighter lending conditions, and restrictive Fed policy.
All the components of our supply chain stress tracker were steady or signaled an improvement in conditions in July. The transportation and activity components are nearly back to their pre-pandemic levels and aren’t showing signs of bottoming out.
We continue to forecast growth in global construction activity over 2023, albeit at a slower rate than we anticipated at the end of 2022. In this context, we are revisiting the 6 themes we thought would dominate the narrative of the construction sector over 2023.
Achieving the US government’s long-term goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 will require the enactment of stringent mitigation policies. The economic impacts would be significant for the US Southwest, consisting of Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas.
Using our Industry Climate Service, we explore the ways a net zero scenario can impact industrial sectors across countries with reference to three representative examples: China, France, and the United States.
We recently received many questions on China’s growth trajectory given the recent twists and turns in onshore activity and policy signals.
The data this week have done little to change the picture of an economy that remains resilient and a labor market that is cooling, albeit gradually.
