Research Briefing | Sep 29, 2023

Most US metros to see slower growth in 2024

Most metros have had steady GDP and job growth in 2023 but will start to see quarterly declines in Q4 or Q1 2024. All of the top 50 metros are forecast to see a slowdown in GDP growth in 2024, driven by lower finance and real estate GDP more than by other sectors. Among major metros, Austin, Seattle, and San Jose will slightly outperform the others, followed by Dallas, Phoenix, and Atlanta. We forecast that almost one third of the metros will incur slight job declines in 2024, with office sectors leading the losses. However, all of the top 50 metros will see healthy job gains in leisure and hospitality.

What you will learn:

  • GDP growth will slow significantly in 2024 following a relatively robust 2023. Interest rate-sensitive sectors such as finance and real estate will weigh on GDP growth more than others, while the construction sector will generate GDP gains in most metros. Metros leading GDP growth in 2024 include many with a large information sector as the GDP concentration in this sector explains much of the disparity in GDP growth.
  • Those expected to trail in GDP terms include New Orleans, Virginia Beach, Los Angeles, Providence, and Chicago. Most of these either have a small information sector or are forecast to see lower construction GDP growth than most.
  • Job growth, in contrast, will be driven by gains in leisure and hospitality. Metros leading job growth in 2024 include Austin, Charlotte, Raleigh, Honolulu, and Dallas. More than one quarter of the top 50 metros are forecast to see very slight job declines with Memphis, Detroit, Providence, Virginia Beach, and Cleveland incurring the biggest losses.
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