Saarah Ghazi 
Our analysis shows that inflation, in most countries, will be lower than consensus expects. With EM disinflation clearly on track, we think that local currency bonds will do well.
In this week’s Beyond the Headlines, join Sergi Lanau, Director of Global Emerging Market Strategy, as he discusses our preferred asset in emerging markets.
US private sector return on investment (ROI) is near 20-year highs, boosted by commodity price strength and business spending on technology. The rising return from previous investments is one factor recently supporting US industry capex in the face of higher costs of capital.
Business perceptions of the key threats to the global economy have shifted significantly, based on our latest Global Risk Survey. Geopolitical tensions – for example, related to Taiwan, Korea, and Russia-NATO – are now believed to pose the greatest risk to the global economy in both the near term and medium term.
This report sponsored by Energy UK investigates the challenges the UK faces in attracting sufficient private sector investment to finance its clean energy transition. It also details the economic benefits that transition could bring.
Central banks may be nearing the end of the rate hiking cycle, but does that mean it is a good time to buy short-duration bonds? In this week’s Beyond the Headlines, join Javier Corominas, Director of Global Strategy, to look at where the opportunities lie in global fixed income markets.
Following a significant increase in 2021 and 2022, multifamily rents are trending down. Looking into 2024, rent growth is projected to be weaker but we do not expect outright rent declines.
Our estimates suggest that the surge in aggregate bank profitability may continue in the near term, but the outlook remains very uncertain and subject to downside risks.
As the largest emitter of CO₂ emissions globally, the electricity sector will play a central role in the energy transition. Radical changes will be needed in the way electricity is generated, transmitted, distributed, and consumed as energy supply shifts away from fossil fuels to renewables to meet climate pledges and limit human-induced global warming.
Advanced economy central banks have received a lot of criticism for their policy decisions over the past two or three years. In this week’s Beyond the Headlines, join Ben May, Director, Macro Forecasting and Analysis, look at the lessons that can be learned from the recent conduct of Emerging Market central banks.
In Asia Pacific and in Europe, total employment growth in major cities over the period 2023-27 is likely to lag behind office employment, with China seeing a particularly large gap between the two. In Canada, office employment will also slightly outpace the total.
Our supply-chain stress tracker declined again in June and stood halfway below its year-ago level, signaling a massive improvement in conditions.
Like many Midwest metros, Cleveland’s job growth has been tepid. Total job growth of 0.7% from Q4 2022 to Q2 2023 trailed the US rate of 1.1% in H1 2023. Job growth was led by construction, ambulatory health care, and hospitals.
We have upgraded our forecasts for the Stockholm economy in 2023 as a result of a stronger than expected national outturn in the early part of 2023.
We expect eurozone house prices will continue to slide through 2023 following back-to-back declines in Q1 2023 and Q4 2022. Moreover, while the cumulative 2.5% decline to Q1 was driven primarily by Germany, we think price falls will become broader.
One of China’s longer term economic challenges has been its ability to transition successfully away from an investment-led growth model towards consumption.
In this week’s Beyond the Headlines, join Louise Loo, Lead Economist, as she examines the different kinds of rebalancing that has been seen in China.
Recent strong growth in office-based employment will come to an end this year across Canadian metros, as many metro economies experience a period of recession.
As Emerging Market (EM) resilience has impressed, and stagflation fears have eased, we have seen some reassuring signs on the inflation front as surprises and risks declined sharply across regions.
In this week’s Beyond the Headlines, join Lucila Bonilla, Global EM Economist, as she examines the latest EM macro developments, and why they seem encouraging.
We think that eurozone and US REIT prices will rise in H2 as inflation falls and interest rates peak. In particular, the eurozone looks to have the most favourable near-term potential for price growth despite underperforming over the year-to-date.
Canada’s early-season wildfires have caused massive destruction and dislocation in their paths – we estimate they have already reduced GDP in Q2 by 0.1ppt.
We expect downward pressure from multiple factors to push inflation lower by the end of 2023. Weaker demand and reduced supply constraints are poised to ease stress in goods and services.
