Research Briefing | Jul 12, 2023

Cleveland manufacturing and office sectors see little light ahead

Like many Midwest metros, Cleveland’s job growth has been tepid. Total job growth of 0.7% from Q4 2022 to Q2 2023 trailed the US rate of 1.1% in H1 2023. Job growth was led by construction, ambulatory health care, and hospitals. Cleveland is forecast to see a job decline of 0.9% in the second half of 2023 and is forecast to see jobs decline 0.1%, on average, from 2024 through 2027, one of the few metros to see a net decline for the four-year period.

What you will learn:

  • Cleveland’s GDP growth rate in the first half of 2023 of 0.7% ranks in the bottom 10 of the 50 largest metros. GDP growth was led by management of companies, commercial banking, and computer systems design. We forecast a GDP decline of 0.9% in the second half of 2023 followed by average annual 2024-27 GDP growth of 1.2%, below the 50-city average forecasted rate of 1.7%.
  • Cleveland has a large education sector, including Case Western and John Carroll universities. This sector had job growth of 0.6% in the first half of 2023 but is forecast to see a decline of 0.6% in H2 2023. We forecast average annual 2024-27 job growth of 0.4%. The sector also had GDP growth of 1% in the first half of 2023. We forecast flat GDP from 2023 to 2027. With its renowned Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland also has a significant hospitals sector, which saw job growth of 1.7% in the first half of 2023 but is forecast to see a decline in jobs of 0.8% in H2 2023 and grow by 0.6%, annually, from 2024 to 2027.
  • Cleveland saw net outmigration of 3,100 in 2022. This contributed to population decline of 0.5% last year. From 2023 to 2027 we forecast net outmigration of 9,900 and population falling by 0.2% annually, one of the lowest among the largest metros. Cleveland, like much of the Midwest, saw house prices climb from Q2 2022 to Q2 2023, rising by 1.2%.
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