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Isabelle Gray

This report sponsored by Energy UK uses Oxford Economics’ Global Climate Scenario Modelling to understand the implications for the UK of the different routes to achieving Net Zero. As well as changing the shape of the UK economy, the transition to Net Zero could deliver significant benefits for the UK.

The transition to net zero will happen at different speeds across London boroughs, and each will face various degrees of challenge, and have different abilities to respond. Prosperous boroughs are better placed, but variations in reliance on private cars, the types of homes that people live in, and sectoral structures, will all affect progress.

A lot of data exist regarding local differences in household income levels, but very little on differences in wealth. But the latter are very important in understanding the resilience of local economies, opportunities, and spending behaviour. To address this, we have produced wealth estimates at the local authority level for England and Wales.

Asia-Pacific’s fast-growing emerging cities are driving the continued expansion of the region’s middle-income class and the reshaping of its consumption patterns. In previous decades that was driven by China’s ascent to becoming an upper middle-income country, and the rapidly rising living standards of its urban residents.

bp has been based in the United Kingdom for more than 100 years. During that period, the company has provided the country with the reliable source of energy it needs to run. As one of the UK’s largest businesses, its activities have a significant footprint that reaches all nations and regions of the country.

Greenhouse gas emissions on London’s roads have fallen historically, despite a rise in traffic. And on the basis of current policies and technological trends, we think it reasonable to expect that emissions from road transport in London will reach net zero by around 2050.

We have cut our forecast for UK GDP growth in 2024 to 0.4%, from 1.3% three months ago. We expect that all regions will avoid a contraction this year, albeit some such as Scotland more narrowly than others.

This report presents an assessment of international wine and spirits’ contribution to the economies of Thailand and Vietnam.

Over recent years, climate change has undoubtedly moved to the forefront of Spanish government policy, underpinned by the aim of carbon neutrality by 2050. However, there remains a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the speed and economic impact of this transition.

Cities in central and eastern Europe (CEE) have grown rapidly since the start of the century, driven by rising productivity. That has more than offset the negative impact for these cities of skilled workers migrating to the west. By 2050, nominal GDP per worker in CEE cities will on average match that in west European cities.

Destinations across the world have been faced with sustained temperatures in excess of 40C (104F) since June. The combination of climate change and the warm phase of the El Niño climate pattern is widely believed to be the cause of this.

In our flagship report, ‘Multilateral Development Banks for Global Public Goods’, commissioned by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Oxford Economics highlighted the positive role that the use of GPGs can play in preventing and addressing crises that cross national boundaries. As part of that work, we wanted to identify and share promising practices and good examples of how the provision of GPGs can be supported through international funding—and in particular through MDBs.

TikTok plays host to a diverse nexus of people, creators, and businesses—all operating within vibrant virtual communities. Businesses, particularly SMEs, are well placed to benefit from TikTok’s content algorithm which helps users to discover lesser-known brands according to their tastes.

Pump

The Global Pump Outlook contains data and forecasts (2023 to 2027) on the usage of pumps by country and end-user industry. It contains analysis of the economic drivers of pump usage and how they are projected to change in the future.

Labour markets in European cities have shown remarkable resilience over the last few years, and employment in office-based sectors especially so. But from this year onwards, we expect the pace of office employment growth to slow.

Oxford Economics estimated the University of Sussex’s impact on the UK economy during 2020/21. The findings demonstrate the economic and social contributions the University makes within the region and across the UK.

This inaugural study for EY explores how far along firms are in their implementation of platform business models, and what wider impact this has for the platform economy. The research inputs to this report are the results from a quantitative survey of 1,000 C-suite executives from across the technology sector that EY commissioned Oxford Economics to undertake.

Businesses are increasingly hoping for early policy rate cuts to counter the potential fallout from banking system strains. Compared with early March, more Global Risk Survey respondents now believe the Federal Reserve and ECB will reduce interest rates before the end of this year and far
fewer respondents think that the first rate cut is at least a year away.

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Research Briefing | Jun 14, 2023

Global Scenarios Service: Credit Crunch

Global economic prospects remain relatively subdued. While we have revised up our expectations for global growth this year given the resilience of recent economic data, we have lowered our forecast for 2024 as recent events in the banking sector will likely prompt further tightening of banks’ credit conditions.

The situation in the banking system is a key uncertainty. If problems intensify, then it could result in a much weaker path for the global economy.

We continue to expect relatively subdued global growth this year and next. We forecast world GDP growth of 2.0% in 2023 – with the US pushed into recession in H2 – and 2.2% in 2024.

This quarter’s Global Scenarios report suggests banking system strains and tightened credit supply now pose the greatest threats to the global economy.

To find out more, fill in the form to download the executive summary of this quarter’s Global Scenarios report.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jun 14, 2023

Global Scenarios Service: Credit Crunch

Global economic prospects remain relatively subdued. While we have revised up our expectations for global growth this year given the resilience of recent economic data, we have lowered our forecast for 2024 as recent events in the banking sector will likely prompt further tightening of banks’ credit conditions.

The situation in the banking system is a key uncertainty. If problems intensify, then it could result in a much weaker path for the global economy.

We continue to expect relatively subdued global growth this year and next. We forecast world GDP growth of 2.0% in 2023 – with the US pushed into recession in H2 – and 2.2% in 2024.

This quarter’s Global Scenarios report suggests banking system strains and tightened credit supply now pose the greatest threats to the global economy.

To find out more, fill in the form to download the executive summary of this quarter’s Global Scenarios report.

Read more

The global challenges of today are transboundary and pose existential risks for our societies and economies – including climate change, biodiversity loss, pandemics, fragility, violence and conflict.

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