London roads will become net zero, but not until 2050

In the decade before the pandemic, London enjoyed a growth premium over other major European cities. However London has faced a number of challenges which put the city under increased pressure from international rivals and we expect London’s advantage over other cities to be smaller in the future than it has been in the past. However, it will remain Europe’s largest economy.

What you will learn:

• Progress to net zero will be heavily reliant on removing the most polluting vehicles from London’s roads, and boosting the uptake of electric and perhaps hydrogen vehicles. For cars, we expect to see progress on all fronts, but not fast enough to achieve the Mayor of London’s aspiration of net zero by 2030.
• The same is true for light goods vehicles. For buses and coaches, progress is already rapid. But for heavy goods vehicles, some significant technological improvements are likely to be needed.
• Our modelling suggests that emissions on road transport in London will be approximately 4,800 kilotons (kt) CO2e in 2030, down from 8,100 kt CO2e in 2019. The rate of decline is then likely to accelerate significantly, supported by a falling share of non-fully electric vehicles (down from 65% to 5%).