Isabelle Gray 
You may be interested in 2024 Paris Olympics: Impact on Tourism and Beyond The Olympics are set to push Paris ahead of France in terms of recovery, with international arrivals into Paris rising to 15% above 2019 levels. Find Out More → Labour’s plan to build more homes is encouraging, but do not expect it … Read more
The chemical industries in the US and EU are at the precipice of a major divergence. We believe that a structural advantage for the US, borne initially of the shale gas boom of the 2010s and more recently from the shift of European consumption towards LNG, will create a growing wedge between the two regions over the medium term. This applies directly to basic chemicals, which use natural gas directly as a feedstock and for industrial heating purposes, with ramifications for more specialised chemicals production which are themselves downstream of basic chemicals.
This report updates last years’ research on the detection and prevention of financial crime, and it’s cost to the UK financial services sector. We surveyed 254 senior compliance executives about their costs and compliance activities, and extrapolated the results to estimate the costs across the UK Financial Services sector. The report, by LexisNexis Risk Solutions, … Read more
On behalf of the World Spirits Alliance (WSA), and in collaboration with the IWSR, Oxford Economics undertook the first ever truly global economic impact assessment of the production and sale of spirits across 185 economies in 2022. The study found that the production and sale of spirits supported $730 billion in GVA contributions to global GDP, as well as 36 million jobs and $390 billion in tax revenue for governments across the world.
The second round of the French snap elections resulted in a hung parliament, as we expected. Even though the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), an alliance of left-wing parties recorded a surprisingly strong performance and finished in first place, we think France is still set for policy paralysis, as an Assembly split in 3 large blocs will be unable to underpin a stable government.
We think that the Norwegian krone and the Swedish krona will hold on to their recent gains and appreciate further next year. Following significant volatility recently, a combination of fading domestic risks and favourable external developments will provide support for both currencies. Data surprises present the key risk.
Blog|3 July 2024 Risks in our Q2 IFRS 9 and CECL scenarios more evenly spread reflecting monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainty Marc Pacitti Lead Economist, Scenarios and Macro Modelling The Q2 update of our IFRS 9 and CECL scenarios services continues to see a moderate downside weight to risks around our baseline forecast. The direction … Read more
Related topics Greenomics – Ep. 11 | Social disruption: The impact of climate change on vulnerable communities Climate change is a threat multiplier – disrupting ways of life, threatening food sources, and fundamentally changing the environment in which we live. In this episode we explore the potential impacts of climate change on vulnerable communities, from … Read more
Related Topics Labour’s plan to build more homes is encouraging, but do not expect it to profoundly reform the market At the top of the Quality of Life category are cities with lower inequality and residents that live long lives. Most of these cities also provide residents with access to a wide range of recreation … Read more
Related topics Excellence in commodity forecast accuracy: A World Bank Group assessment A recent assessment by the World Bank Group identified the Oxford Economics Model as a superior tool for forecasting commodity prices. Find Out More → To bee or not to bee—a small insect’s place in the world economy In recent years, UK government … Read more
Related Services Macro and Regulatory Scenarios Our models, forecasts, and datasets can be customised to fit the unique needs of your organisation. Find Out More → MENA Forecasting Service Monitor the implications of economic and market developments in the MENA region. Find Out More → European Macro Service A complete service to help executives track, … Read more
Related Content UK Elections | Beyond the Headlines In this week’s Beyond the Headlines, join Andrew Goodwin, Chief UK Economist, as he outlines how we’ve changed our UK interest rate forecast after a busy week for the UK economy. Find Out More → Government bonds will not return as diversifiers soon Global construction activity has … Read more
A second Trump presidency could have a moderate impact on European growth based on our simulation of his proposed policies. In the most extreme protectionist scenario, the eurozone economy would be 0.4% smaller than in our baseline forecast by 2029.
On behalf of the European Digital Payment Industry Alliance (EDPIA), our report on “The Environmental Impact of Digital over Cash Payments in Europe” seeks to evaluate carbon emissions across payment systems at point of sales.
Developed in partnership with Convera and The Paypers, this insightful report analyses the current and future state of the fintech sector, emphasizing the crucial role of cross-border payments in international trade and finance. As global commerce evolves in the digital era, alongside rapidly shifting consumer and business expectations, the need for innovative, efficient and secure payment methods that cater to an interconnected world becomes ever more urgent.
A substantial backlog of work is supporting building construction activity in the face of falling permits. Building companies in the EU report a 11.5-month backlog of work, up from an average of 9.5 months in the decade before the coronavirus pandemic.
The UK needs a strategic vision if it wants to arrest the stagnation that has plagued the economy — and targeted industrial policy may be a good place to start. There has been a shift in the global narrative around industrial policy and whether this derives from de-risking supply chains, helping the green transition, or getting a head start on sectors with large growth prospects.
Related Services Australia Macro Service Discover Australia’s economic outlook with our expert forecasts and analysis. Stay informed on key trends shaping the future of the Australian economy. Find Out More → New Zealand Macro Service Stay ahead with the latest economic forecast for New Zealand, offering detailed insights and analysis to help you understand market … Read more
Flexible accommodation solutions made available on Airbnb enable destinations to host events, enhancing visitor experience and bolstering local economies.
Latest data point to a delayed start to a consumer revival in the eurozone, but we see relatively low risk of it being derailed. Even with a slow start, it’s unlikely to throw the rebound off course – plus there’s a chance of make-up growth in H2. We expect private consumption to grow 1.2% in 2024 overall.
