OE Logo
Request a trial

Isabelle Gray

After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.

The UK Government’s Autumn 2022 Growth Plan examined the potential reintroduction of tax-free shopping for non-EU27 and extending the scheme for EU27 visitors. HM Treasury estimated that implementing this scheme would incur costs to the Exchequer of £1.3 billion in 2024/25 and £2.0 billion in 2025/26, based on anticipated VAT refunds. However, these estimates did not account for the impact on visitor incentives.

In early 2023 the Hackney Council commissioned Oxford Economics in partnership with Ramidus to research the current scale and specialisms of Hackney’s green economy, and identify future opportunities and potential barriers to growth.

While decoupling in specific industries is a concern for global trade, deglobalisation at a larger scale presents a small but rising risk. Target measures against the trade of information and technology may continue to increase, given rising geopolitical tension, but there are few signs of this spilling over into the broader trade environment.

We are adding a depreciation risk premium that incorporates climate transition risk to our required returns framework.

We forecast small increases in economic activity across nearly all UK nations and regions this year, with London in the lead in terms of GVA and employment. Consumer spending falls everywhere.

We think eurozone households will be reluctant to tap into the €1tn (8% of GDP) stock of savings accumulated during the pandemic-stricken years, at least in the near term, which means the boost to private consumption will be limited. Should households dip deeper into their savings, it would add upside risk to our baseline, particularly over the medium term.

The impact of policies to address climate change in Canada cannot be discussed only in national terms; there will be variations by province and metro.

The economic impact of mitigation policies to address climate change will vary by state and metro. Understanding these differences, under different scenarios, is critical for businesses and local government when developing their strategic plans, risk assessments, and location decisions.

Credibility Gap in Climate Policy

The impact of policies to address climate change cannot be discussed only in national terms. There will be variations by region. Cities overall are likely to retain or increase their growth premia over national economies, but some will suffer.

We do not expect French pension reform protests to have a lasting impact on the economy, as the likely small downward revision to Q2 will be offset by stronger growth over the rest of the year.

Small businesses in the UK continued to make a sizeable contribution to the UK economy in 2022, despite facing new challenges Post Covid. Analysis by Oxford Economics finds that lending to SMEs through Funding Circle generated a £6.9 billion contribution to UK GDP, supported nearly 106,000 jobs, and provided £1.4 billion in tax payments to the UK exchequer.

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Mar 14, 2023

Global Scenarios Service: Policy Peril

While recent economic developments support the notion that economies aren’t heading into a major economic downturn, global economic prospects remain subdued. Inflation and monetary policy-related risks remain key near-term worries in our latest Global Risk Surveys, while geopolitical fears have also risen.

This quarter’s Global Scenario report highlights the sensitivity of monetary policy to near-term inflationary developments ¬and explores the potential fall-out for the the global economy and financial markets.

To find out more, fill in the form to download the executive summary of this quarter’s Global Scenarios report.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Mar 14, 2023

Global Scenarios Service: Policy Peril

While recent economic developments support the notion that economies aren’t heading into a major economic downturn, global economic prospects remain subdued. Inflation and monetary policy-related risks remain key near-term worries in our latest Global Risk Surveys, while geopolitical fears have also risen.

This quarter’s Global Scenario report highlights the sensitivity of monetary policy to near-term inflationary developments ¬and explores the potential fall-out for the the global economy and financial markets.

To find out more, fill in the form to download the executive summary of this quarter’s Global Scenarios report.

Read more

Oxford Economics provided economic and labour market insight and forecasts for the Spring 2023 edition of Adecco’s Labour Market Outlook.

This report investigates the impact of the rise in mortgage interest rates on the financial resilience of UK households.

The UK badly needs a strategy to improve potential economic growth and for the government to make it a central priority.

We estimate that reforms to France’s pension system proposed by the government would increase the labour force by 1.4%, lifting potential output by 1.1% by 2035 relative to a no-reform baseline.

After a difficult 2022 for UK households, we expect real income to fall 1.2% in 2023 due to a range of headwinds that will continue to buffet consumers in 2023.

Oxford Economics undertook a study for HMC, the professional association of school heads, assessing the impact of their schools on the UK economy in 2021, and on the environment in recent years.

The study suggests the civil nuclear industry supports a £16.1 billion contribution to UK GDP, 211,500 jobs, and £7.1 billion in tax revenues. 24% occurs in the North West and 16% in the South West.

Also of Interest