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Research Briefing | Jan 7, 2022

The London economy was growing strongly when Omicron hit

Frame-London-monitor-The-London-economy-was-growing-strongly-when-Omicron-hit

The latest data point to a strong recovery underway in London in Q4 2021. But this pace of expansion will have been hit by the Omicron Covid-19 variant, even if only temporarily.

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Research Briefing | Jan 7, 2022

The London economy was growing strongly when Omicron hit

Frame-London-monitor-The-London-economy-was-growing-strongly-when-Omicron-hit

The latest data point to a strong recovery underway in London in Q4 2021. But this pace of expansion will have been hit by the Omicron Covid-19 variant, even if only temporarily.

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Research Briefing | Jan 7, 2022

Positive signs for UK economy in Q4 look to have proved short-lived

United Kingdom | Positive signs in Q4 look to have proved short-lived

That movements in consumer credit and households’ savings in November
returned to levels more akin to pre-Covid norms offered further indication that activity was growing at a decent pace in Q4 before Omicron struck.
However, a sharp drop in December’s services PMI and a deterioration in some high-frequency indicators illustrated the consequence of surging Covid cases.

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Research Briefing | Jan 7, 2022

Positive signs for UK economy in Q4 look to have proved short-lived

United Kingdom | Positive signs in Q4 look to have proved short-lived

That movements in consumer credit and households’ savings in November
returned to levels more akin to pre-Covid norms offered further indication that activity was growing at a decent pace in Q4 before Omicron struck.
However, a sharp drop in December’s services PMI and a deterioration in some high-frequency indicators illustrated the consequence of surging Covid cases.

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Man wearing an AR headset
Blog|6 January 2022

The suddenly unavoidable metaverse: Four things you need to know

Matthew Reynolds
Matthew Reynolds
Senior Research Manager, Thought Leadership
The suddenly unavoidable metaverse: Four things you need to know

It is easy to pinpoint the moment the metaverse went mainstream: October 28, 2021, when Facebook announced it was renaming itself Meta. Defining just what the metaverse is, or will be, is a little more difficult.

There is widespread agreement that a constellation of emerging technologies will mature in the near- to-intermediate future into something greater than the sum of its parts, transforming industries, economies, and the everyday lives of billions of people along the way. Yet this rich digital realm has neither strict boundaries nor a firm schedule for its piecemeal emergence. Predictions of its economic and financial impact are still in the pick-a-huge-number phase so beloved by Silicon Valley and Wall Street, with plenty of vaporware and hype yet to come. Even the name metaverse—coined by Neal Stephenson in his 1992 novel Snow Crash—may not stick. No wonder you have questions.

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Research Briefing | Dec 23, 2021

Eurozone weekly economic briefing – Gloomy outlook just before Christmas

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-weekly-briefing-Gloomy-outlook-just-before-Christmas

The spread of Omicron across Europe coupled with the holiday season will probably result in a surge in infections over the next few weeks. This will pose strong pressure on governments to act, both in terms of further restrictions and in boosting vaccination campaigns. In the meantime, data this week has added to the gloomy outlook.

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Research Briefing | Dec 23, 2021

Eurozone weekly economic briefing – Gloomy outlook just before Christmas

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-weekly-briefing-Gloomy-outlook-just-before-Christmas

The spread of Omicron across Europe coupled with the holiday season will probably result in a surge in infections over the next few weeks. This will pose strong pressure on governments to act, both in terms of further restrictions and in boosting vaccination campaigns. In the meantime, data this week has added to the gloomy outlook.

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Research Briefing | Dec 23, 2021

The wait for decisive news in the UK on Omicron goes on

United Kingdom | The wait for decisive news on Omicron goes on

Though the government has opted to defer a decision on introducing further restrictions until after Christmas, it seems likely that a mix of greater consumer caution and reduced mobility will ensure that the UK’s GDP falls in December.
The first financial support for businesses was announced this week. But the days of policy support going big and going early are long gone.

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Research Briefing | Dec 23, 2021

The wait for decisive news in the UK on Omicron goes on

United Kingdom | The wait for decisive news on Omicron goes on

Though the government has opted to defer a decision on introducing further restrictions until after Christmas, it seems likely that a mix of greater consumer caution and reduced mobility will ensure that the UK’s GDP falls in December.
The first financial support for businesses was announced this week. But the days of policy support going big and going early are long gone.

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Research Briefing | Dec 22, 2021

Eurozone Recovery Tracker continues its downward trajectory

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker continues its downward trajectory

Our Recovery Tracker continued its downward trajectory in early December as the resurgent pandemic, reimposed restrictions, and voluntary social distancing took their toll on activity in the eurozone. The Tracker fell 3.2pts, to 80.2, in the two weeks ended December 5, the lowest reading since May.
As in the previous weeks, the decline was driven by falls in consumer spending, particularly in contact-intensive settings, and in mobility.

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Research Briefing | Dec 22, 2021

Eurozone Recovery Tracker continues its downward trajectory

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker continues its downward trajectory

Our Recovery Tracker continued its downward trajectory in early December as the resurgent pandemic, reimposed restrictions, and voluntary social distancing took their toll on activity in the eurozone. The Tracker fell 3.2pts, to 80.2, in the two weeks ended December 5, the lowest reading since May.
As in the previous weeks, the decline was driven by falls in consumer spending, particularly in contact-intensive settings, and in mobility.

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shipping container
Blog|21 December 2021

Five trends that will dominate industry in 2022

Kiki Sondh
Kiki Sondh
Economist
Five trends that will dominate industry in 2022

Global industry emerged strong in early 2021, following a lacklustre performance the year before. But with a right jab from renewed restrictions, a left hook from deepening supply chain disruptions, and an uppercut from pent-up consumer demand—it has taken a bit of beating recently. So what’s in store for 2022?

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Aerial view of Singapore business district and city at twilight
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Research Briefing | Dec 21, 2021

We forecast further recovery for APAC cities in 2022, but clearly with some big risks

Ipad Frame - Asia-Pacific-Cities-We-forecast-further-recovery-in-2022-but-clearly-with-some-big-risks

We project that Asia Pacific’s 25 leading cities experience on average 4.5% GDP growth in 2022, and 4.1% over the five years 2022-26, although there is of course considerable economic uncertainty at present.

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Research Briefing | Dec 21, 2021

We forecast further recovery for APAC cities in 2022, but clearly with some big risks

Ipad Frame - Asia-Pacific-Cities-We-forecast-further-recovery-in-2022-but-clearly-with-some-big-risks

We project that Asia Pacific’s 25 leading cities experience on average 4.5% GDP growth in 2022, and 4.1% over the five years 2022-26, although there is of course considerable economic uncertainty at present.

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Wall Street
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Research Briefing | Dec 21, 2021

United States recoveries in 2022 are inversely proportionate to 2020 declines

United States | Recoveries in 2022 are inversely proportionate to 2020 declines

After decelerating in Q3, US GDP growth resumed a healthy pace in Q4, and is expected to hold steady in 2022, notwithstanding the potential short term economic impact from the Omicron variant. Metros that we forecast will see the highest GDP growth in 2022 are those with a large tourism base, including Las Vegas, Honolulu, Orlando, and New Orleans. Those expected to trail include St. Louis, Kansas City, and Cincinnati.

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Research Briefing | Dec 21, 2021

United States recoveries in 2022 are inversely proportionate to 2020 declines

United States | Recoveries in 2022 are inversely proportionate to 2020 declines

After decelerating in Q3, US GDP growth resumed a healthy pace in Q4, and is expected to hold steady in 2022, notwithstanding the potential short term economic impact from the Omicron variant. Metros that we forecast will see the highest GDP growth in 2022 are those with a large tourism base, including Las Vegas, Honolulu, Orlando, and New Orleans. Those expected to trail include St. Louis, Kansas City, and Cincinnati.

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Canadian money
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Research Briefing | Dec 21, 2021

Canadian recovery continuing despite bumps in the road

Canada | Recovery continuing despite bumps in the road

The recovery of Canadian metros is continuing in terms of both GDP and employment. We forecast that GDP in Edmonton and Calgary will grow by more than 5.5% in 2022 while Vancouver is expected to grow by 5.4%, and Toronto by 5.0%. That compares to the average of Canada’s 35 metro areas of 4.8%, and 4.3% nationally..

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Research Briefing | Dec 21, 2021

Canadian recovery continuing despite bumps in the road

Canada | Recovery continuing despite bumps in the road

The recovery of Canadian metros is continuing in terms of both GDP and employment. We forecast that GDP in Edmonton and Calgary will grow by more than 5.5% in 2022 while Vancouver is expected to grow by 5.4%, and Toronto by 5.0%. That compares to the average of Canada’s 35 metro areas of 4.8%, and 4.3% nationally..

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China Shenzhen skyline
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Research Briefing | Dec 21, 2021

Chinese city growth rates to return to trend – but with some short-term worries

China | City growth rates to return to trend—but with some short-term worries

The short-term outlook for China and its cities has weakened slightly this quarter. New headwinds from the property sector slowdown join the existing challenge of China’s hard-line approach to tackling small outbreaks of coronavirus. Over the medium-term, tech cities look set to benefit from China’s ambition to transition further towards innovation-led development.

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Research Briefing | Dec 21, 2021

Chinese city growth rates to return to trend – but with some short-term worries

China | City growth rates to return to trend—but with some short-term worries

The short-term outlook for China and its cities has weakened slightly this quarter. New headwinds from the property sector slowdown join the existing challenge of China’s hard-line approach to tackling small outbreaks of coronavirus. Over the medium-term, tech cities look set to benefit from China’s ambition to transition further towards innovation-led development.

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European cities medium-term economic outlook
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Research Briefing | Dec 21, 2021

European cities medium-term outlook remains stable amid rising infections

Ipad Frame - European-Cities- Medium-term-outlook-remains-stable-amid-rising-infections

In spite of global supply-side issues and another wave of Covid-19 infections at the end of 2021, we expect GDP in 22 of Europe’s 25 major cities to exceed pre-pandemic levels by 2022. Over the next five years, economic growth will be led by a group of eastern cities (Warsaw, Sofia, Prague), with Madrid and Barcelona also forecast to see fast expansion.

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Research Briefing | Dec 21, 2021

European cities medium-term outlook remains stable amid rising infections

Ipad Frame - European-Cities- Medium-term-outlook-remains-stable-amid-rising-infections

In spite of global supply-side issues and another wave of Covid-19 infections at the end of 2021, we expect GDP in 22 of Europe’s 25 major cities to exceed pre-pandemic levels by 2022. Over the next five years, economic growth will be led by a group of eastern cities (Warsaw, Sofia, Prague), with Madrid and Barcelona also forecast to see fast expansion.

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Research Briefing | Dec 21, 2021

Omicron weighs on near-term growth outlook for Norway

Ipad Frame - Norway-Omicron-weighs-on-near-term-growth-outlook

Based on the positive carryover effects from two strong months of GDP growth in August and September, we have raised our mainland GDP forecasts for mainland Norway to 4.1% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022. Still, we expect the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant to impact growth towards the end of Q4 and into the start of next year as new restrictions are enacted.

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Research Briefing | Dec 21, 2021

Omicron weighs on near-term growth outlook for Norway

Ipad Frame - Norway-Omicron-weighs-on-near-term-growth-outlook

Based on the positive carryover effects from two strong months of GDP growth in August and September, we have raised our mainland GDP forecasts for mainland Norway to 4.1% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022. Still, we expect the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant to impact growth towards the end of Q4 and into the start of next year as new restrictions are enacted.

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Research Briefing | Dec 20, 2021

Will any cities challenge the traditional business capitals by 2040?

Ipad Frame - Global-Cities-Will-any-cities-challenge-the-traditional-business-capitals-by-2040

Finance and business services is expected to drive growth in global economic activity and employment over the next 20 years. By 2040, there will be 55 million more jobs in this sector across the world’s major 900 cities than there are today. This will largely be driven by cities in Asia, with Indian and Chinese cities alone responsible for 44% of new jobs.

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Research Briefing | Dec 20, 2021

Will any cities challenge the traditional business capitals by 2040?

Ipad Frame - Global-Cities-Will-any-cities-challenge-the-traditional-business-capitals-by-2040

Finance and business services is expected to drive growth in global economic activity and employment over the next 20 years. By 2040, there will be 55 million more jobs in this sector across the world’s major 900 cities than there are today. This will largely be driven by cities in Asia, with Indian and Chinese cities alone responsible for 44% of new jobs.

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shipping
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Research Briefing | Dec 20, 2021

Global Key themes 2022: Supply chains to begin normalising

Global | Key themes 2022: Supply chains to begin normalising

Industrial production will lag services growth globally going into 2022 as supply-chain pressures continue to bite and the post-pandemic recovery in household spending on services continues apace – with the Omicron variant a significant near-term downside risk.
The recovery in global industrial production will gain considerable momentum later in the year as component shortages and cost pressures ease, and will once again lead growth into the medium-term.

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Research Briefing | Dec 20, 2021

Global Key themes 2022: Supply chains to begin normalising

Global | Key themes 2022: Supply chains to begin normalising

Industrial production will lag services growth globally going into 2022 as supply-chain pressures continue to bite and the post-pandemic recovery in household spending on services continues apace – with the Omicron variant a significant near-term downside risk.
The recovery in global industrial production will gain considerable momentum later in the year as component shortages and cost pressures ease, and will once again lead growth into the medium-term.

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Research Briefing | Dec 17, 2021

Policymakers in the UK withhold support as Omicron fears deepen

United Kingdom | Policymakers withhold support as Omicron fears deepen

Despite the uncertainty caused by the surge in Omicron cases, the BoE raised interest rates to 0.25% this week. This marks a clear change of tack, moving away from a risk management approach. Concerns about a tight labour market and the need to reinforce inflation-fighting credibility are now at the forefront. Early evidence suggests marked damage to activity in social consumption sectors, as rising case numbers hinder mobility and consumers shy away from contact with others. So far the government has been reluctant to offer financial support to these sectors, but that stance might quickly prove unsustainable.

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Research Briefing | Dec 17, 2021

Policymakers in the UK withhold support as Omicron fears deepen

United Kingdom | Policymakers withhold support as Omicron fears deepen

Despite the uncertainty caused by the surge in Omicron cases, the BoE raised interest rates to 0.25% this week. This marks a clear change of tack, moving away from a risk management approach. Concerns about a tight labour market and the need to reinforce inflation-fighting credibility are now at the forefront. Early evidence suggests marked damage to activity in social consumption sectors, as rising case numbers hinder mobility and consumers shy away from contact with others. So far the government has been reluctant to offer financial support to these sectors, but that stance might quickly prove unsustainable.

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Research Briefing | Dec 17, 2021

Omicron threat looms large for Europe’s outlook

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-weekly-briefing- Omicron-threat-looms-large-for-Europes-outlook

The spread of Omicron across Europe will probably see a surge in infections over the coming weeks that could surpass all previous waves. Although there is still a lot of uncertainty around the characteristics of this new variant, with indications that it could be less severe than previous ones, the sheer number of infections will inevitably increase pressure on health systems and will weigh on consumer behaviour and increase voluntary social distancing.

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Research Briefing | Dec 17, 2021

Omicron threat looms large for Europe’s outlook

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-weekly-briefing- Omicron-threat-looms-large-for-Europes-outlook

The spread of Omicron across Europe will probably see a surge in infections over the coming weeks that could surpass all previous waves. Although there is still a lot of uncertainty around the characteristics of this new variant, with indications that it could be less severe than previous ones, the sheer number of infections will inevitably increase pressure on health systems and will weigh on consumer behaviour and increase voluntary social distancing.

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Research Briefing | Dec 17, 2021

European Central Bank tapers PEPP purchases but retains flexibility

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-ECB-tapers-PEPP-purchases-but-retains-flexibility

The ECB took significant steps to tighten its highly accommodative policy stance over the course of 2022 on the back of upwardly revised growth and inflation projections.

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Research Briefing | Dec 17, 2021

European Central Bank tapers PEPP purchases but retains flexibility

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-ECB-tapers-PEPP-purchases-but-retains-flexibility

The ECB took significant steps to tighten its highly accommodative policy stance over the course of 2022 on the back of upwardly revised growth and inflation projections.

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south african city
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Research Briefing | Dec 17, 2021

Africa Watchlist 2022

ipad africa watchlist 2022

Our Watchlist 2022 looks at developments that could potentially become the main African themes of next year. We look at the potential of a unilateral declaration of independence by Tigray in Ethiopia and a French withdrawal from Mali. We also discuss the prospect of South Africans enduring unprecedented levels of electricity supply disruptions and look into some potential currency surprises.

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Research Briefing | Dec 17, 2021

Africa Watchlist 2022

ipad africa watchlist 2022

Our Watchlist 2022 looks at developments that could potentially become the main African themes of next year. We look at the potential of a unilateral declaration of independence by Tigray in Ethiopia and a French withdrawal from Mali. We also discuss the prospect of South Africans enduring unprecedented levels of electricity supply disruptions and look into some potential currency surprises.

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Research Briefing | Dec 17, 2021

GDP growth forecast for Sweden nudged down to 3.2% due to weaker near-term activity

Ipad Frame - Sweden-GDP-growth-forecast-nudged-down-to-3.2-due-to-weaker-near-term-activity

Growth in Q3 and previous quarters was revised up, pushing up our 2021 forecast to 4.7% from 4.3%. But we have lowered our near-term forecast due to the emergence of the Omicron variant, although this should be compensated for by faster growth later next year to give 2022 growth of 3.2%, slightly lower than projected last month.

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Research Briefing | Dec 17, 2021

GDP growth forecast for Sweden nudged down to 3.2% due to weaker near-term activity

Ipad Frame - Sweden-GDP-growth-forecast-nudged-down-to-3.2-due-to-weaker-near-term-activity

Growth in Q3 and previous quarters was revised up, pushing up our 2021 forecast to 4.7% from 4.3%. But we have lowered our near-term forecast due to the emergence of the Omicron variant, although this should be compensated for by faster growth later next year to give 2022 growth of 3.2%, slightly lower than projected last month.

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