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Research Briefing | Dec 16, 2021

UK BoE ignores Omicron uncertainty to hike rates

United Kingdom | BoE ignores Omicron uncertainty to hike rates

Even though Omicron is casting a huge shadow over the UK economy, the BoE today raised Bank Rate to 0.25% signalling a clear change of tack. Shifting from a risk management approach, concerns about a tight labour market and the need to reinforce inflation-fighting credibility are now at the forefront. Despite the change of approach, we still see Omicron as key to the near-term outlook.

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Research Briefing | Dec 16, 2021

UK BoE ignores Omicron uncertainty to hike rates

United Kingdom | BoE ignores Omicron uncertainty to hike rates

Even though Omicron is casting a huge shadow over the UK economy, the BoE today raised Bank Rate to 0.25% signalling a clear change of tack. Shifting from a risk management approach, concerns about a tight labour market and the need to reinforce inflation-fighting credibility are now at the forefront. Despite the change of approach, we still see Omicron as key to the near-term outlook.

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Research Briefing | Dec 16, 2021

How will Biden’s infrastructure push affect US industries?

How will Bidens infrastructure push affect US industries - iPad

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) will deliver a 2% boost to US construction activity over the next two years, about five times larger than the growth impulse to the broader economy. After construction, we find that the legislation will provide the largest boost to manufacturing and professional and business services, raising their growth between 0.2ppts and 0.3ppts on average each year, according to our simulations.

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Research Briefing | Dec 16, 2021

How will Biden’s infrastructure push affect US industries?

How will Bidens infrastructure push affect US industries - iPad

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) will deliver a 2% boost to US construction activity over the next two years, about five times larger than the growth impulse to the broader economy. After construction, we find that the legislation will provide the largest boost to manufacturing and professional and business services, raising their growth between 0.2ppts and 0.3ppts on average each year, according to our simulations.

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Research Briefing | Dec 16, 2021

Unchanged growth for Finland, as weaker activity in the near-term will be reversed later in the year

Ipad Frame - Finland-Unchanged-growth-as-weaker-activity-in-the-near-term-will-be-reversed-later-in-the-year

Our forecast for Finland’s GDP growth is 3.5% this year before a slowdown to 2.3% in 2022, both unchanged from last month. Growth in Q3 was revised down marginally to 0.8%, although the economy is comfortably above pre-pandemic levels. The pandemic has re-emerged as the key downside risk to the near-term outlook, due to surging new cases and the Omicron variant.

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Research Briefing | Dec 16, 2021

Unchanged growth for Finland, as weaker activity in the near-term will be reversed later in the year

Ipad Frame - Finland-Unchanged-growth-as-weaker-activity-in-the-near-term-will-be-reversed-later-in-the-year

Our forecast for Finland’s GDP growth is 3.5% this year before a slowdown to 2.3% in 2022, both unchanged from last month. Growth in Q3 was revised down marginally to 0.8%, although the economy is comfortably above pre-pandemic levels. The pandemic has re-emerged as the key downside risk to the near-term outlook, due to surging new cases and the Omicron variant.

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Research Briefing | Dec 16, 2021

MENA Key themes 2022: GCC starts the year on a firm footing

MENA | Key themes 2022: GCC starts the year on a firm footing

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will be one of only two major regions globally (the other being ASEAN) to grow faster – at above 5% – in 2022 relative to this year, provided the Omicron variant does not prove too disruptive. Although regional recovery has lagged its peers over the last 12 months, 2021 has been a decent year, with GCC GDP expected to surpass pre-crisis levels in Q1 2022.

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Research Briefing | Dec 16, 2021

MENA Key themes 2022: GCC starts the year on a firm footing

MENA | Key themes 2022: GCC starts the year on a firm footing

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will be one of only two major regions globally (the other being ASEAN) to grow faster – at above 5% – in 2022 relative to this year, provided the Omicron variant does not prove too disruptive. Although regional recovery has lagged its peers over the last 12 months, 2021 has been a decent year, with GCC GDP expected to surpass pre-crisis levels in Q1 2022.

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Research Briefing | Dec 16, 2021

Inflation risks pose conundrum for the CEE

Europe | Inflation risks pose conundrum for the CEE

Inflationary pressures have strengthened and broadened in Central and Eastern Europe recently, prompting a hawkish turn by the region’s central banks. We still think many of the drivers are temporary and will gradually abate next year. But risks of persistently high inflation driven by structural factors are now emerging, leading us to raise our inflation forecasts again.

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Research Briefing | Dec 16, 2021

Inflation risks pose conundrum for the CEE

Europe | Inflation risks pose conundrum for the CEE

Inflationary pressures have strengthened and broadened in Central and Eastern Europe recently, prompting a hawkish turn by the region’s central banks. We still think many of the drivers are temporary and will gradually abate next year. But risks of persistently high inflation driven by structural factors are now emerging, leading us to raise our inflation forecasts again.

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Research Briefing | Dec 16, 2021

Solid growth for Denmark expected despite emergence of Omicron variant

Ipad Frame - Denmark-Solid-growth-expected-despite-emergence-of-Omicron-variant

Downward revisions to Q2 and Q3 GDP figures and concerns about the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant have led us to lower our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% previously.

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Research Briefing | Dec 16, 2021

Solid growth for Denmark expected despite emergence of Omicron variant

Ipad Frame - Denmark-Solid-growth-expected-despite-emergence-of-Omicron-variant

Downward revisions to Q2 and Q3 GDP figures and concerns about the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant have led us to lower our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% previously.

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Rewiring Seattle explores the costs of Seattle’s new electric heating mandate as well as implications for low-income households, and for carbon emissions.

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This report outlines the strong performance of the red meat processing industry during the pandemic in 2020. The industry was able to maintain reliable supplies to both domestic and international customers under challenging circumstances.

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Research Briefing | Dec 15, 2021

The rise of urban economic powerhouses

Copy of Ipad Frame (53)

The top 900 Global Cities currently produce almost 60% of all world economic activity, and they will grow in importance as urbanisation continues. By 2040, these cities will be home to half a billion additional people. But we forecast significant growth disparities between cities, and therefore expect to see considerable changes in the urban economic landscape over this period. 

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Research Briefing | Dec 15, 2021

The rise of urban economic powerhouses

Copy of Ipad Frame (53)

The top 900 Global Cities currently produce almost 60% of all world economic activity, and they will grow in importance as urbanisation continues. By 2040, these cities will be home to half a billion additional people. But we forecast significant growth disparities between cities, and therefore expect to see considerable changes in the urban economic landscape over this period. 

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The future for London as a global city and as a location for investment in residential real estate remains very positive, according to a new report from Oxford Economics commissioned by Mitheridge Capital Management.

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Research Briefing | Dec 14, 2021

Global Key Themes for Travel and Tourism in 2022

Key themes in travel & tourism for the coming year - iPad

Recovery in international travel will gather pace during 2022, but there will be some further reductions in activity early in the year along with clear risks related to the new Omicron variant. Short-haul intra-regional travel is still likely to see fastest recovery.

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Research Briefing | Dec 14, 2021

Global Key Themes for Travel and Tourism in 2022

Key themes in travel & tourism for the coming year - iPad

Recovery in international travel will gather pace during 2022, but there will be some further reductions in activity early in the year along with clear risks related to the new Omicron variant. Short-haul intra-regional travel is still likely to see fastest recovery.

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Research Briefing | Dec 14, 2021

Easing supply bottlenecks to bolster Eurozone industrial rebound

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-Easing-supply-bottlenecks-to-bolster-industrial-rebound

The easing of the severe supply-chain bottlenecks that brought the eurozone’s industrial recovery to a standstill in early 2021 will be gradual, with setbacks along the way very possible. But we see signs that the worst is over and we expect eurozone industrial production to grow a strong 4% in 2022. This year’s laggards – Germany and the auto sector – are likely to outperform.

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Research Briefing | Dec 14, 2021

Easing supply bottlenecks to bolster Eurozone industrial rebound

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-Easing-supply-bottlenecks-to-bolster-industrial-rebound

The easing of the severe supply-chain bottlenecks that brought the eurozone’s industrial recovery to a standstill in early 2021 will be gradual, with setbacks along the way very possible. But we see signs that the worst is over and we expect eurozone industrial production to grow a strong 4% in 2022. This year’s laggards – Germany and the auto sector – are likely to outperform.

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This report, commissioned by British American Tobacco Australia, examines the size of the illicit market as well as the economic effects of that market on the national economy.

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Research Briefing | Dec 13, 2021

Key themes for Latin America in 2022: stagflation risk will test central banks

Ipad Frame - Latin-America-Key-themes-2022-stagflation-risk-will-test-central-banks

Latin America’s economy enters the new year on a weakened footing. Our 2022 themes revolve around the inherent struggle between supporting a slowing economy versus reining in uncomfortably high inflation. And with central banks not following the same rulebook, the chances of policy mistakes are high.

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Research Briefing | Dec 13, 2021

Key themes for Latin America in 2022: stagflation risk will test central banks

Ipad Frame - Latin-America-Key-themes-2022-stagflation-risk-will-test-central-banks

Latin America’s economy enters the new year on a weakened footing. Our 2022 themes revolve around the inherent struggle between supporting a slowing economy versus reining in uncomfortably high inflation. And with central banks not following the same rulebook, the chances of policy mistakes are high.

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Commissioned by EPRA, this study contributes to the debate by examining the relative performance of active and passive investment strategies in European listed real estate. It provides an independent perspective and useful insights to asset managers and investors in Europe’s rapidly growing listed real estate market.

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Research Briefing | Dec 13, 2021

ECB will aim to retain optionality given high uncertainty

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-ECB-will-aim-to-retain-optionality-given-high-uncertainty

It appears to be a forgone conclusion that the ECB council will agree to end its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) at its upcoming meeting. Near-term inflation forecasts will see another large upward revision and with several council members worried about upside risks to the outlook, withdrawal of some of the pandemic-related policy support looks warranted.

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Research Briefing | Dec 13, 2021

ECB will aim to retain optionality given high uncertainty

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-ECB-will-aim-to-retain-optionality-given-high-uncertainty

It appears to be a forgone conclusion that the ECB council will agree to end its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) at its upcoming meeting. Near-term inflation forecasts will see another large upward revision and with several council members worried about upside risks to the outlook, withdrawal of some of the pandemic-related policy support looks warranted.

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Research Briefing | Dec 13, 2021

Canadian 2022 Themes: Economic recovery delayed not derailed

Copy of Ipad Frame (52)

Canada’s full economic recovery from the pandemic has been delayed, not
derailed. The economy continues to benefit from reopening amid high
vaccination rates, but it is being hit by supply disruptions exacerbated by
floods in BC, rising cost pressures, and resurgent health concerns as the
Omicron variant ushers the pandemic into a new year.

As of Q3 2021, real output was still 1.4% below its pre-virus level and around 5% below its pre-pandemic trend. Even with 4.3% GDP growth pencilled in for next year, the economy won’t return to its pre-Covid trend in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Dec 13, 2021

Canadian 2022 Themes: Economic recovery delayed not derailed

Copy of Ipad Frame (52)

Canada’s full economic recovery from the pandemic has been delayed, not
derailed. The economy continues to benefit from reopening amid high
vaccination rates, but it is being hit by supply disruptions exacerbated by
floods in BC, rising cost pressures, and resurgent health concerns as the
Omicron variant ushers the pandemic into a new year.

As of Q3 2021, real output was still 1.4% below its pre-virus level and around 5% below its pre-pandemic trend. Even with 4.3% GDP growth pencilled in for next year, the economy won’t return to its pre-Covid trend in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Dec 10, 2021

Omicron uncertainty looms over the UK near-term outlook

United Kingdom | Omicron uncertainty looms over the near-term outlook

We think the government’s shift to its Plan B Covid strategy is unlikely to have a significant impact on output. The emergence of Omicron may impact activity by making consumers more cautious, but until we know more about the health implications, we see no reason to lower our forecast again at this stage.
We expect the uncertainty to stay the MPC’s rate-raising hand next week. But with Ben Broadbent joining the list of members concerned about the tightness of the labour market, we expect the MPC to send a strong signal it will move in February if it’s clear that Omicron hasn’t materially altered the outlook.

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Research Briefing | Dec 10, 2021

Omicron uncertainty looms over the UK near-term outlook

United Kingdom | Omicron uncertainty looms over the near-term outlook

We think the government’s shift to its Plan B Covid strategy is unlikely to have a significant impact on output. The emergence of Omicron may impact activity by making consumers more cautious, but until we know more about the health implications, we see no reason to lower our forecast again at this stage.
We expect the uncertainty to stay the MPC’s rate-raising hand next week. But with Ben Broadbent joining the list of members concerned about the tightness of the labour market, we expect the MPC to send a strong signal it will move in February if it’s clear that Omicron hasn’t materially altered the outlook.

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Research Briefing | Dec 10, 2021

Macron sets EU aims amid Omicron risks

Eurozone | Macron sets EU aims amid Omicron risks

The health situation is deteriorating across Europe, prompting stronger
containment measures. Beyond the direct impact that renewed restrictions will have on the economy, this will also affect consumer behaviour, pushing
households to increase voluntary social distancing and limiting mobility.
As a consequence, our updated baseline now sees the eurozone economy
barely growing in Q4 and expanding by a mild 0.5% q/q in Q1, dragged down by softer consumption.

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Research Briefing | Dec 10, 2021

Macron sets EU aims amid Omicron risks

Eurozone | Macron sets EU aims amid Omicron risks

The health situation is deteriorating across Europe, prompting stronger
containment measures. Beyond the direct impact that renewed restrictions will have on the economy, this will also affect consumer behaviour, pushing
households to increase voluntary social distancing and limiting mobility.
As a consequence, our updated baseline now sees the eurozone economy
barely growing in Q4 and expanding by a mild 0.5% q/q in Q1, dragged down by softer consumption.

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Research Briefing | Dec 10, 2021

US Recovery Tracker drops on Omicron and seasonal drags

US | Recovery Tracker drops on Omicron and seasonal drags

The US Recovery Tracker fell sharply in late November as news of the Omicron variant hit financial markets, exacerbating the typical seasonal Thanksgiving holiday drag. Demand was the only dimension that strengthened as the tracker fell 3.1ppts in the week ended Nov. 26, to 96.6, its lowest level since September.
We believe 50% of the decline reflects a seasonal drag that has since been undone, while another 30% has been reversed by the equity market rebound following the Nov. 26 plunge.

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Research Briefing | Dec 10, 2021

US Recovery Tracker drops on Omicron and seasonal drags

US | Recovery Tracker drops on Omicron and seasonal drags

The US Recovery Tracker fell sharply in late November as news of the Omicron variant hit financial markets, exacerbating the typical seasonal Thanksgiving holiday drag. Demand was the only dimension that strengthened as the tracker fell 3.1ppts in the week ended Nov. 26, to 96.6, its lowest level since September.
We believe 50% of the decline reflects a seasonal drag that has since been undone, while another 30% has been reversed by the equity market rebound following the Nov. 26 plunge.

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