Research Briefing | Dec 10, 2021

Macron sets EU aims amid Omicron risks

Eurozone | Macron sets EU aims amid Omicron risks

The health situation is deteriorating across Europe, prompting stronger
containment measures. Beyond the direct impact that renewed restrictions will have on the economy, this will also affect consumer behaviour, pushing
households to increase voluntary social distancing and limiting mobility.
As a consequence, our updated baseline now sees the eurozone economy
barely growing in Q4 and expanding by a mild 0.5% q/q in Q1, dragged down by softer consumption.

What you will learn:

  • We expect the situation to normalize from Q2, we think most of this lower spending will be offset in the rest of 2022.
  • French President Emmanuel Macron set the priorities for the French presidency of the EU that starts in January. Unsurprisingly, reform of the fiscal rules is at centre stage, with industry and migration also pointed.
  • While Macron’s European ambitions are clear, we doubt the French EU-presidency will be a game-changer as reaching a consensus will be tough, while Macron will also have to deal with the French presidential campaign at the same time.
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