Solid growth for Denmark expected despite emergence of Omicron variant
Downward revisions to Q2 and Q3 GDP figures and concerns about the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant have led us to lower our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% previously.
What you will learn:
- We see activity picking up from Q2 2022 under the expectation that supply chain issues will have begun to subside and the vaccine booster programme will have brought the pandemic back under control.
- We don’t think Denmark will be as adversely affected as other European economies, but it could feel the pinch from softer external demand and consumer uncertainty.
- Growth in 2021 is now forecast at 3.8%.
Big shifts are underway in Russia-China trade
Data for Q3 on the volume of China's imports of crude from Russia show a drop against the June level. Rather than an indication that China's demand has peaked, this may be a sign that China is preparing for the Russian oil price cap recently agreed by G7 by shifting some of its purchases to the grey market.Find Out More
Levelling up is unlikely under the Liz Truss government
The government's levelling up ambition has probably been made more, not less, difficult by the new "Plan for Growth". Policies of lower taxes, less regulation, and a smaller state are unlikely to have much beneficial impact on long-term growth at the national level, let alone in those regions with long track records of underperformance.Find Out More