Research Briefing | Dec 13, 2021

ECB will aim to retain optionality given high uncertainty

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-ECB-will-aim-to-retain-optionality-given-high-uncertainty

It appears to be a forgone conclusion that the ECB council will agree to end its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) at its upcoming meeting. Near-term inflation forecasts will see another large upward revision and with several council members worried about upside risks to the outlook, withdrawal of some of the pandemic-related policy support looks warranted.

What you will learn:

  • The dovish core of the council has plenty of ammunition to push back against the hawks.
  • The new forecast for 2024 is likely to show inflation edging closer to but remaining below target as there is little evidence that structural headwinds to inflation have eased.
  • The ongoing Delta wave and risks of a large Omicron wave imply downside risks to near-term growth and inflation.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

European cities - Rome


European Macro Service

A complete service to help executives track, analyse and react to macro events and future trends for the European region.

Find Out More
European cities - Paris


European Cities and Regions Service

Regularly updated data and forecasts for 2,000 locations across Europe.

Find Out More


Economic and Political Risk Evaluator

A framework for assessing economic and geopolitical risks.

Find Out More


Modelling and Scenarios

Bespoke research to help you make informed decisions.

Find Out More