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Research Briefing | Dec 10, 2021

Another difficult winter ahead amid Omicron threat for the eurozone

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-Another-difficult-winter-ahead-amid-Omicron-threat

We have revised down our near-term eurozone growth forecast, owing to deteriorating health conditions and the emergence of the Omicron variant. This adds to existing headwinds relating to surging inflation, persistent equipment and labour shortages, and a gradual withdrawal of policy support.

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Research Briefing | Dec 10, 2021

Another difficult winter ahead amid Omicron threat for the eurozone

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-Another-difficult-winter-ahead-amid-Omicron-threat

We have revised down our near-term eurozone growth forecast, owing to deteriorating health conditions and the emergence of the Omicron variant. This adds to existing headwinds relating to surging inflation, persistent equipment and labour shortages, and a gradual withdrawal of policy support.

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Asia map
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Research Briefing | Dec 10, 2021

Japan’s FDI strategy is to diversify away from China

Japan’s FDI strategy is to diversify away from China

Japan’s foreign direct investment (FDI) position nearly tripled over the past decade, even as domestic investment stagnated. Currently, 40% of FDI income comes from Asia, thanks to the high rate of return, especially in China.

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Research Briefing | Dec 10, 2021

Japan’s FDI strategy is to diversify away from China

Japan’s FDI strategy is to diversify away from China

Japan’s foreign direct investment (FDI) position nearly tripled over the past decade, even as domestic investment stagnated. Currently, 40% of FDI income comes from Asia, thanks to the high rate of return, especially in China.

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Nordic key themes 2022
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Research Briefing | Dec 9, 2021

Nordic key themes 2022: Headwinds to dissipate

Ipad Frame - Nordic-key-themes-2022-Headwinds-to-dissipate

The Nordic countries will exit 2021 in much better shape than when they entered it. Considerable progress on vaccine rollouts and post-reopening booms have brought all four economies above their pre-pandemic levels. We think four key themes will shape the outlook for the region heading into 2022.

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Research Briefing | Dec 9, 2021

Nordic key themes 2022: Headwinds to dissipate

Ipad Frame - Nordic-key-themes-2022-Headwinds-to-dissipate

The Nordic countries will exit 2021 in much better shape than when they entered it. Considerable progress on vaccine rollouts and post-reopening booms have brought all four economies above their pre-pandemic levels. We think four key themes will shape the outlook for the region heading into 2022.

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Research Briefing | Dec 9, 2021

Omicron to put BoE rate hike on hold for now

United Kingdom | Omicron to put BoE rate hike on hold for now

A December rate hike would require the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to be satisfied that the end of the furlough scheme was benign and that the Omicron variant won’t derail the recovery. The majority have likely seen enough to be sure of the labour market recovery but will want more evidence on Omicron.
We expect the MPC to signal that the first hike is imminent if Omicron doesn’t result in greater restrictions on activity.

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Research Briefing | Dec 9, 2021

Omicron to put BoE rate hike on hold for now

United Kingdom | Omicron to put BoE rate hike on hold for now

A December rate hike would require the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to be satisfied that the end of the furlough scheme was benign and that the Omicron variant won’t derail the recovery. The majority have likely seen enough to be sure of the labour market recovery but will want more evidence on Omicron.
We expect the MPC to signal that the first hike is imminent if Omicron doesn’t result in greater restrictions on activity.

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Research Briefing

The global real estate rebound is under threat

Ipad Frame - The-global-real-estate-rebound-is-under-threat

A less positive economic outlook and rising downside risks are threatening the global real estate recovery. Our baseline forecast is for global all property returns to grow by 7.6% pa over 2022-2023. But risk-adjusted returns are weaker, at 7.3% pa, based on the weighted-average of all risk scenarios.

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Research Briefing

The global real estate rebound is under threat

Ipad Frame - The-global-real-estate-rebound-is-under-threat

A less positive economic outlook and rising downside risks are threatening the global real estate recovery. Our baseline forecast is for global all property returns to grow by 7.6% pa over 2022-2023. But risk-adjusted returns are weaker, at 7.3% pa, based on the weighted-average of all risk scenarios.

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Blog|9 December 2021

Home working and remote rural places: Evidence, problems, and a proposal

Richard Holt
Richard Holt
Director of Global Cities Research
Home working and remote rural places: Evidence, problems, and a proposal

Over the last year and a half, many office workers have decided they can work from almost anywhere with a desk, a decent internet connection, and enough space. People say they are just as productive at home as when they are in the office. If so, then maybe rural towns and villages can now compete with the big city, when it comes to productive desk-based working. Perhaps cities will no longer be the great drivers of growth?

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Research Briefing | Dec 9, 2021

Africa Climate change: adaptation and mitigation

Africa climate change ipad

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on Africa. Therefore, the continent’s preparation in expectation of further global warming is key in lowering its contribution to carbon emissions and adapting to changes in climate.

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Research Briefing | Dec 9, 2021

Africa Climate change: adaptation and mitigation

Africa climate change ipad

Climate change is expected to have a significant impact on Africa. Therefore, the continent’s preparation in expectation of further global warming is key in lowering its contribution to carbon emissions and adapting to changes in climate.

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Africa and climate change
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Research Briefing | Dec 9, 2021

Africa and climate change: Adaptation and mitigation

Although Africa’s carbon footprint is currently relatively small, the continent is severely vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Therefore, African countries need to take the necessary steps now to ensure a sustainable future.

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Research Briefing | Dec 9, 2021

Africa and climate change: Adaptation and mitigation

Although Africa’s carbon footprint is currently relatively small, the continent is severely vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Therefore, African countries need to take the necessary steps now to ensure a sustainable future.

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This study, commissioned by the MPA – Canada, analyzes the total economic impacts of the production of Season One of Superman & Lois in British Columbia.

Ship waiting at harbor
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Research Briefing | Dec 9, 2021

Asia exports look to improve in 2022

Asia-exports-look-to-improve-in-2022_Page_1

The level of Asian exports in volume terms has been stagnant in H2 2021. In addition, across the major manufacturing exporting economies, there have been significant disparities in export performance. Our analysis finds these differences stem from compositional differences in export products and supply-side constraints.

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Research Briefing | Dec 9, 2021

Asia exports look to improve in 2022

Asia-exports-look-to-improve-in-2022_Page_1

The level of Asian exports in volume terms has been stagnant in H2 2021. In addition, across the major manufacturing exporting economies, there have been significant disparities in export performance. Our analysis finds these differences stem from compositional differences in export products and supply-side constraints.

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Canadian government
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Research Briefing | Dec 8, 2021

Can Canadian households handle higher interest rates?

Can households handle higher interest rates - iPad

Canada entered the pandemic with historically elevated household debt, and a C$193bn surge in mortgage borrowing during the pandemic has raised household debt to a record C$2.5tn. With many central banks turning more hawkish and interest rates set to rise, this begs the question: Can Canadian households handle higher interest rates?

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Research Briefing | Dec 8, 2021

Can Canadian households handle higher interest rates?

Can households handle higher interest rates - iPad

Canada entered the pandemic with historically elevated household debt, and a C$193bn surge in mortgage borrowing during the pandemic has raised household debt to a record C$2.5tn. With many central banks turning more hawkish and interest rates set to rise, this begs the question: Can Canadian households handle higher interest rates?

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Europe rural economies
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Research Briefing | Dec 8, 2021

Rural economies: new digital technologies will not offset remoteness

Global Cities Outlook | The rise of urban economic powerhouses

The pandemic has created a rise in working from home, and the new technologies may similarly make it easier for some rural businesses to compete with urban rivals. But we doubt that they will produce a major relocation of activity. The advantages of urban economies, plus employers’ scepticism about remote working, imply that changes will be incremental.

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Research Briefing | Dec 8, 2021

Rural economies: new digital technologies will not offset remoteness

Global Cities Outlook | The rise of urban economic powerhouses

The pandemic has created a rise in working from home, and the new technologies may similarly make it easier for some rural businesses to compete with urban rivals. But we doubt that they will produce a major relocation of activity. The advantages of urban economies, plus employers’ scepticism about remote working, imply that changes will be incremental.

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This study assesses YouTube’s contribution to GDP and employment in the EU, and its broader impact on society and culture.

Philippine currency
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Research Briefing | Dec 8, 2021

APAC’s regional monetary policies to continue to diverge in 2022

Ipad Frame (76)

We expect monetary policy to continue to diverge across Asia Pacific (APAC) in 2022, with central banks in the advanced APAC economies (apart from RBA and BoJ) further normalising monetary policy, leading the US Federal Reserve.

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Research Briefing | Dec 8, 2021

APAC’s regional monetary policies to continue to diverge in 2022

Ipad Frame (76)

We expect monetary policy to continue to diverge across Asia Pacific (APAC) in 2022, with central banks in the advanced APAC economies (apart from RBA and BoJ) further normalising monetary policy, leading the US Federal Reserve.

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Green tea plantations in Munnar, India
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Research Briefing | Dec 8, 2021

A balanced path to a greener future for India

report image for a balance path to a greener future

India’s pledge to achieve net zero by 2070 is admirable. But the path announced by Prime Minister Modi at COP26 toward achieving that goal is – to say the least – ambitious. The 2030 commitments include a hefty reduction in projected emissions and 50% clean electricity generation, setting the bar high.

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Research Briefing | Dec 8, 2021

A balanced path to a greener future for India

report image for a balance path to a greener future

India’s pledge to achieve net zero by 2070 is admirable. But the path announced by Prime Minister Modi at COP26 toward achieving that goal is – to say the least – ambitious. The 2030 commitments include a hefty reduction in projected emissions and 50% clean electricity generation, setting the bar high.

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This study assesses YouTube’s contribution to GDP and employment in Ireland, and its broader impact on society and culture.

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Research Briefing | Dec 7, 2021

US Supply-chain snags loosened a bit in November

Supply-chain snags loosened a bit in November - iPad

Our US supply-chain stress tracker points to less stress in November. Still, while transportation challenges eased, they remained the greatest supply-side problem facing businesses. Headwinds also eased somewhat from an inflation, inventory, and jobs perspective, but pressures increased on the activity front. Importantly, the new Omicron variant risks slowing the pace at which supply-chain problems are resolved, and could unwind the progress achieved thus far.

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Research Briefing | Dec 7, 2021

US Supply-chain snags loosened a bit in November

Supply-chain snags loosened a bit in November - iPad

Our US supply-chain stress tracker points to less stress in November. Still, while transportation challenges eased, they remained the greatest supply-side problem facing businesses. Headwinds also eased somewhat from an inflation, inventory, and jobs perspective, but pressures increased on the activity front. Importantly, the new Omicron variant risks slowing the pace at which supply-chain problems are resolved, and could unwind the progress achieved thus far.

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Research Briefing | Dec 7, 2021

Global key themes 2022: Strong recovery amid shifting risks

Ipad Frame - Global-Key-themes-2022-Strong-recovery-amid-shifting-risks

Diminishing economic disruption and uncertainty, stemming from the pandemic and ensuing supply-side bottlenecks, bode well for a still-strong recovery in 2022. But next year will herald a new phase in the recovery, driven by distinct shifts in the key macroeconomic trends.

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Research Briefing | Dec 7, 2021

Global key themes 2022: Strong recovery amid shifting risks

Ipad Frame - Global-Key-themes-2022-Strong-recovery-amid-shifting-risks

Diminishing economic disruption and uncertainty, stemming from the pandemic and ensuing supply-side bottlenecks, bode well for a still-strong recovery in 2022. But next year will herald a new phase in the recovery, driven by distinct shifts in the key macroeconomic trends.

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Research Briefing | Dec 7, 2021

London Monitor | London continues to recover but the path just got a bit rockier

London Monitor | London continues to recover. But the path just got a bit rockier.

We have lowered our Greater London GDP forecast to 5.4% in 2022 after 5.7% in 2021. Inner London sees 5.5% growth in both years. This reflects the fact that while the capital’s economy does continue to expand, the evidence is somewhat mixed, and there are also some external reasons for caution.

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Research Briefing | Dec 7, 2021

London Monitor | London continues to recover but the path just got a bit rockier

London Monitor | London continues to recover. But the path just got a bit rockier.

We have lowered our Greater London GDP forecast to 5.4% in 2022 after 5.7% in 2021. Inner London sees 5.5% growth in both years. This reflects the fact that while the capital’s economy does continue to expand, the evidence is somewhat mixed, and there are also some external reasons for caution.

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Research Briefing | Dec 7, 2021

Rural economies: new digital technologies will not offset remoteness

Ipad Frame (75)

The pandemic has created a rise in working from home, and the new technologies may similarly make it easier for some rural businesses to compete with urban rivals. But we doubt that they will produce a major relocation of activity. The advantages of urban economies, plus employers’ scepticism about remote working, imply that changes will be incremental.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Dec 7, 2021

Rural economies: new digital technologies will not offset remoteness

Ipad Frame (75)

The pandemic has created a rise in working from home, and the new technologies may similarly make it easier for some rural businesses to compete with urban rivals. But we doubt that they will produce a major relocation of activity. The advantages of urban economies, plus employers’ scepticism about remote working, imply that changes will be incremental.

Read more

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