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Blog|6 December 2021

Competition for FDI ramps up in the Middle East

Scott Livermore
Scott Livermore
Chief Economist & Managing Director
Competition for FDI ramps up in the Middle East

Attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) is central to the growth diversification strategy for countries in the Middle East, especially in the GCC. Saudi Arabia recently announced it hopes to attract FDI of US$100bn annually (up from an average of US$5.2bn in the period from 2015-19), and the UAE aims to become one of the 10 largest FDI destinations by 2030. Similarly, Bahrain’s updated economic plan includes measures to boost FDI inflows.

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Research Briefing | Dec 3, 2021

Eurozone weekly economic briefing | Covid concerns dominate the outlook once again

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The surge in Covid cases continues across Europe, prompting governments to announce new restrictive measures that will impact economic growth in the near term. While monthly activity indicators are still consistent with a robust expansion, we expect a substantial deterioration in December when surveys fully capture the impact from the latest wave.

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Research Briefing | Dec 3, 2021

Eurozone weekly economic briefing | Covid concerns dominate the outlook once again

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-weekly-Covid-concerns-dominate-the-outlook-once-again

The surge in Covid cases continues across Europe, prompting governments to announce new restrictive measures that will impact economic growth in the near term. While monthly activity indicators are still consistent with a robust expansion, we expect a substantial deterioration in December when surveys fully capture the impact from the latest wave.

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Research Briefing | Dec 3, 2021

Rural travel destinations fare better as consumer preferences shift

Travel & Tourism

The COVID-19 shock has led to a structural shift in consumers’ choice of travel destinations, as travellers increasingly have moved away from urban centres towards rural locations. In the summer months of 2021, the share of visits to rural destinations increased considerably.

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Research Briefing | Dec 3, 2021

Rural travel destinations fare better as consumer preferences shift

Travel & Tourism

The COVID-19 shock has led to a structural shift in consumers’ choice of travel destinations, as travellers increasingly have moved away from urban centres towards rural locations. In the summer months of 2021, the share of visits to rural destinations increased considerably.

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Research Briefing | Dec 3, 2021

Three key issues for the Australia inflation outlook

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The Q2 CPI data prompted a sharp re-evaluation of the outlook for inflation and interest rates across financial markets. We have also revised our forecasts higher, albeit more modestly, based on our views on three key issues for inflation at present.

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Research Briefing | Dec 3, 2021

Three key issues for the Australia inflation outlook

Copy of Ipad Frame (9)

The Q2 CPI data prompted a sharp re-evaluation of the outlook for inflation and interest rates across financial markets. We have also revised our forecasts higher, albeit more modestly, based on our views on three key issues for inflation at present.

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Shanghai city view at night
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Research Briefing | Dec 2, 2021

China key themes 2022: Easier policy amid weaker growth

China-key-themes-2022-first page

We see China’s economy entering 2022 with weaker growth. Our forecast has GDP growth dipping to 3.6% y/y in Q4 2021. And we expect 5.4% GDP growth in 2022, with the economy shaped by three key themes:

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Research Briefing | Dec 2, 2021

China key themes 2022: Easier policy amid weaker growth

China-key-themes-2022-first page

We see China’s economy entering 2022 with weaker growth. Our forecast has GDP growth dipping to 3.6% y/y in Q4 2021. And we expect 5.4% GDP growth in 2022, with the economy shaped by three key themes:

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From Chaotic to Connected: Becoming an interconnected business.” The webcast features experts from Oxford Economics, who share insights and recommendations on how adopting an interconnected management style is critical to navigate the kinds of disruptions we faced in 2020 and to support future growth.

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Research Briefing | Dec 1, 2021

United Kingdom key themes 2022: A tougher phase for the recovery

UK Key themes 2022

After enduring one of the deepest downturns in 2020, the UK has enjoyed one of the strongest rebounds in 2021. The ‘easy’ gains from reopening are behind us, and unprecedented policy support is being withdrawn, so the recovery is now entering a tougher phase. But provided the Omicron Covid variant doesn’t result in renewed restrictions, we’re sticking to our upbeat view of the UK’s prospects for 2022 based on four key themes shaping the outlook.

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Research Briefing | Dec 1, 2021

United Kingdom key themes 2022: A tougher phase for the recovery

UK Key themes 2022

After enduring one of the deepest downturns in 2020, the UK has enjoyed one of the strongest rebounds in 2021. The ‘easy’ gains from reopening are behind us, and unprecedented policy support is being withdrawn, so the recovery is now entering a tougher phase. But provided the Omicron Covid variant doesn’t result in renewed restrictions, we’re sticking to our upbeat view of the UK’s prospects for 2022 based on four key themes shaping the outlook.

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supply chain
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Research Briefing | Dec 1, 2021

Asia supply-chain disruptions easing but challenges remain

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Following an easing in restrictions, Asia production is ramping up to meet strong global demand for consumer goods, auto parts, and electronics. While capacity will remain tight, the efficiency Asia’s ports (including 24/7 operations) means there’s scope for production increases to be moved rapidly through logistics chains across the region. The upturn in production should help ease global supply-chain bottlenecks heading into 2022. But port logjams in the US and Europe mean delays will remain significant, and we expect global freight rates to remain high into H1 2022.

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Research Briefing | Dec 1, 2021

Asia supply-chain disruptions easing but challenges remain

Ipad Frame for APAC_Asiasupply-chaindisruptionseasingbutchallengesremain

Following an easing in restrictions, Asia production is ramping up to meet strong global demand for consumer goods, auto parts, and electronics. While capacity will remain tight, the efficiency Asia’s ports (including 24/7 operations) means there’s scope for production increases to be moved rapidly through logistics chains across the region. The upturn in production should help ease global supply-chain bottlenecks heading into 2022. But port logjams in the US and Europe mean delays will remain significant, and we expect global freight rates to remain high into H1 2022.

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Research Briefing | Dec 1, 2021

Credit conditions still favourable but on the move

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Recent months have seen the favourable lending environment for households begin to tighten. Inflation concerns have bond markets pricing in an earlier cash rate move than the RBA has signalled. While the cash rate remains unchanged, fixed rate mortgage rates have risen in the past few weeks and regulators are gearing towards further macroprudential intervention in 2022.

The impact of these changes is at the margin. It is not until increases in the cash rate flow through that we expect a more meaningful curtailing of credit availability. Our expectation is for the cash rate to lift gradually from Q1 2023.

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Research Briefing | Dec 1, 2021

Credit conditions still favourable but on the move

Copy of Ipad Frame (6)

Recent months have seen the favourable lending environment for households begin to tighten. Inflation concerns have bond markets pricing in an earlier cash rate move than the RBA has signalled. While the cash rate remains unchanged, fixed rate mortgage rates have risen in the past few weeks and regulators are gearing towards further macroprudential intervention in 2022.

The impact of these changes is at the margin. It is not until increases in the cash rate flow through that we expect a more meaningful curtailing of credit availability. Our expectation is for the cash rate to lift gradually from Q1 2023.

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Research Briefing | Dec 1, 2021

United States 2022 Themes: A ‘MESSI’ year ahead

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We anticipate 2022 will be a ‘MESSI’ (Moderating Expansion with Sticky Supply-driven Inflation) year for the US economy. After experiencing one of the most severe economic shocks of the past century in 2020, the US economy has vaulted into one of the most rapid recoveries in modern history in 2021. Still, it’s not time to pop the Champagne. The recovery process is far from complete, and the next stage of the recovery will be trickier to navigate.

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Research Briefing | Dec 1, 2021

United States 2022 Themes: A ‘MESSI’ year ahead

Copy of Ipad Frame (5)

We anticipate 2022 will be a ‘MESSI’ (Moderating Expansion with Sticky Supply-driven Inflation) year for the US economy. After experiencing one of the most severe economic shocks of the past century in 2020, the US economy has vaulted into one of the most rapid recoveries in modern history in 2021. Still, it’s not time to pop the Champagne. The recovery process is far from complete, and the next stage of the recovery will be trickier to navigate.

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Research Briefing | Nov 30, 2021

Eurozone 2022 themes: Now for the hard part

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-2022-themes-Now-for-the-hard-part

The eurozone pushed on with a strong recovery in 2021, but in many ways that’s been the easy part. With reopening tailwinds mostly exhausted, the bloc will face different challenges in 2022.

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Research Briefing | Nov 30, 2021

Eurozone 2022 themes: Now for the hard part

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-2022-themes-Now-for-the-hard-part

The eurozone pushed on with a strong recovery in 2021, but in many ways that’s been the easy part. With reopening tailwinds mostly exhausted, the bloc will face different challenges in 2022.

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Naturally lit shopping centre
Blog|30 November 2021

Local shopping centres prove pandemic resilient in Australia — but will it last?

Local shopping centres prove pandemic resilient in Australia — but will it last?

The meteoric rise of online shopping has been a hallmark of consumer spending during the pandemic. But all is not lost with Australia’s brick-and-mortar retail. With people spending more time at home, neighbourhood shopping centre turnover (including local supermarkets and pharmacies) has actually risen—at an estimated 4%-5% pa—in contrast to the steep drop in large-center turnover.

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Tokyo Japan
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Research Briefing | Nov 30, 2021

Japan transforming from a goods to a capital exporter

Japan: Transforming from a goods to a capital exporter

Japan has been a country with a persistent current account surplus since the 1980s. By breaking down the current account balance, though, we can see that primary income – mostly consisting of income from foreign investments – replaced the goods trade as the main source of the surplus in the mid-2000s. In this sense, we can argue that Japan today has become an exporter of capital, rather than a goods exporter.

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Research Briefing | Nov 30, 2021

Japan transforming from a goods to a capital exporter

Japan: Transforming from a goods to a capital exporter

Japan has been a country with a persistent current account surplus since the 1980s. By breaking down the current account balance, though, we can see that primary income – mostly consisting of income from foreign investments – replaced the goods trade as the main source of the surplus in the mid-2000s. In this sense, we can argue that Japan today has become an exporter of capital, rather than a goods exporter.

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Research Briefing | Nov 29, 2021

Norway | Outlook for 2022 holding firm despite inflation and Covid headwinds

Ipad Frame - Norway-Outlook-for-2022-holding-firm-despite-inflation-and-Covid-headwinds

Our 2021 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.9% after the 2.6% Q3 expansion was broadly in line with our estimate, and we continue to expect a 4.1% growth in 2022. After an unusually strong August print, GDP rose 0.6% m/m in September as private consumption growth remained solid.

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Research Briefing | Nov 29, 2021

Norway | Outlook for 2022 holding firm despite inflation and Covid headwinds

Ipad Frame - Norway-Outlook-for-2022-holding-firm-despite-inflation-and-Covid-headwinds

Our 2021 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.9% after the 2.6% Q3 expansion was broadly in line with our estimate, and we continue to expect a 4.1% growth in 2022. After an unusually strong August print, GDP rose 0.6% m/m in September as private consumption growth remained solid.

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Research Briefing | Nov 29, 2021

Eurozone: Rising Covid cases may slow the recovery

Ipad Frame (15)-3

With Covid infections rising rapidly again across Europe, the health situation is back under the spotlight. Governments across the region are becoming very vocal again on containment measures, while relatively hard restrictions are being reimposed in some countries. Austria even announced a 10-day hard lockdown on Monday in an attempt to curb infections. While the vaccination campaigns mean the medical situation is less threatening for the economy than a year ago, we see the current trend as worrying and expect further restrictive measures to be announced across the bloc.

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Research Briefing | Nov 29, 2021

Eurozone: Rising Covid cases may slow the recovery

Ipad Frame (15)-3

With Covid infections rising rapidly again across Europe, the health situation is back under the spotlight. Governments across the region are becoming very vocal again on containment measures, while relatively hard restrictions are being reimposed in some countries. Austria even announced a 10-day hard lockdown on Monday in an attempt to curb infections. While the vaccination campaigns mean the medical situation is less threatening for the economy than a year ago, we see the current trend as worrying and expect further restrictive measures to be announced across the bloc.

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Research Briefing | Nov 29, 2021

United Kingdom | New Covid variant undermines case for December hike

Ipad Frame (14)-3

Ordinarily, the strength of recent survey evidence would have tilted the balance further toward a rise in Bank Rate next month. But the discovery of a new Covid variant and the resulting market turmoil has thrown that prospect into doubt. It’s too soon to be clear about the health consequences of the new variant. But the latest Covid developments leave us more confident that the MPC will wait until next year before hiking rates.

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Research Briefing | Nov 29, 2021

United Kingdom | New Covid variant undermines case for December hike

Ipad Frame (14)-3

Ordinarily, the strength of recent survey evidence would have tilted the balance further toward a rise in Bank Rate next month. But the discovery of a new Covid variant and the resulting market turmoil has thrown that prospect into doubt. It’s too soon to be clear about the health consequences of the new variant. But the latest Covid developments leave us more confident that the MPC will wait until next year before hiking rates.

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Research Briefing | Nov 26, 2021

Global | The real estate bounce will extend into 2022

The real estate bounce will extend into 2022

After bouncing back from the pandemic in 2021, global real estate will likely have another strong year in 2022 – we expect returns of 8%. Despite disruptions in product and labour markets and isolated covid outbreaks, economic activity and employment growth will continue at a pace, driving global real estate returns.

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Research Briefing | Nov 26, 2021

Global | The real estate bounce will extend into 2022

The real estate bounce will extend into 2022

After bouncing back from the pandemic in 2021, global real estate will likely have another strong year in 2022 – we expect returns of 8%. Despite disruptions in product and labour markets and isolated covid outbreaks, economic activity and employment growth will continue at a pace, driving global real estate returns.

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Research Briefing | Nov 26, 2021

Global | Real estate is not a hedge for this type of inflation

Real estate is not a hedge for this type of inflation

The received wisdom that real estate is a good inflation hedge is an oversimplification. This is revealed by our two plausible high inflation scenarios for the year ahead utilising the recent integration of real estate markets into the Global Economic Model.

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Research Briefing | Nov 26, 2021

Global | Real estate is not a hedge for this type of inflation

Real estate is not a hedge for this type of inflation

The received wisdom that real estate is a good inflation hedge is an oversimplification. This is revealed by our two plausible high inflation scenarios for the year ahead utilising the recent integration of real estate markets into the Global Economic Model.

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Research Briefing | Nov 25, 2021

Germany | New coalition aims to modernize with limited fiscal boost

Ipad Frame - Germany-New-coalition-aims-to-modernize-with-limited-fiscal-boost

The SPD, FDP and Green party have struck a deal to form the next German government, which should be in power by early-December. A first reading of the 177-page deal suggests that the future coalition has agreed an overall sensible plan to modernize and decarbonise the country. But there are key questions on implementation and financing, while the pandemic is a near-term headache.

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Research Briefing | Nov 25, 2021

Germany | New coalition aims to modernize with limited fiscal boost

Ipad Frame - Germany-New-coalition-aims-to-modernize-with-limited-fiscal-boost

The SPD, FDP and Green party have struck a deal to form the next German government, which should be in power by early-December. A first reading of the 177-page deal suggests that the future coalition has agreed an overall sensible plan to modernize and decarbonise the country. But there are key questions on implementation and financing, while the pandemic is a near-term headache.

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The latest quarterly travel forecasts for the European region produced for the European Travel Commission (ETC).

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