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Research Briefing | Nov 23, 2021

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker highlights the Eurozone gloom

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-Recovery-Tracker-highlights-the-Eurozone-gloom

Our Eurozone Recovery Tracker recorded a sizeable drop over the two weeks to November 7, mainly driven by worsening conditions in health and mobility. The 1.1pts slide was the largest since April.

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Research Briefing | Nov 23, 2021

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker highlights the Eurozone gloom

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-Recovery-Tracker-highlights-the-Eurozone-gloom

Our Eurozone Recovery Tracker recorded a sizeable drop over the two weeks to November 7, mainly driven by worsening conditions in health and mobility. The 1.1pts slide was the largest since April.

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This study assesses YouTube’s contribution to GDP and employment in Italy, and its broader impact on society and culture.

Questo studio valuta i contributi di YouTube al PIL e all’occupazione in Italia, ed il suo impatto più ampio sulla società e sulla cultura Italiana.

Airbnb is playing a growing role in the recovery of the tourism sector. As the sector begins to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, understanding changing travel patterns, including shifts to more rural destinations, and greater geographical dispersion in economic impact is key to the sector’s recovery.

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Research Briefing | Nov 23, 2021

Europe’s labour shortages – not all equal

Eurozone | Europe’s labour shortages – not all equal

Although reported labour shortages in the eurozone appear to be worsening, our analysis of the underlying dynamics shows a more nuanced picture. We think the shortages in manufacturing and services are more cyclical in nature and should ease faster, while those in construction appear more structural.

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Research Briefing | Nov 23, 2021

Europe’s labour shortages – not all equal

Eurozone | Europe’s labour shortages – not all equal

Although reported labour shortages in the eurozone appear to be worsening, our analysis of the underlying dynamics shows a more nuanced picture. We think the shortages in manufacturing and services are more cyclical in nature and should ease faster, while those in construction appear more structural.

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This study assesses YouTube’s contribution to GDP and employment in Spain, and its broader impact on society and culture.

Este estudio evalúa la contribución de YouTube al PIB y al empleo en España y, en un nivel más amplio, su impacto social y cultural.

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Research Briefing | Nov 22, 2021

Chile | Voters face most momentous election in a generation

Voters face most momentous election in a generation - iPad

Chileans go to the polls on November 21, in a polarised election that will decide its full lower house, more than half of the senate, and new president. More than 20% of voters are undecided, according to polls, reflecting the uncertainty facing all the candidates, even the current front-runners.

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Research Briefing | Nov 22, 2021

Chile | Voters face most momentous election in a generation

Voters face most momentous election in a generation - iPad

Chileans go to the polls on November 21, in a polarised election that will decide its full lower house, more than half of the senate, and new president. More than 20% of voters are undecided, according to polls, reflecting the uncertainty facing all the candidates, even the current front-runners.

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Podcast|22 November 2021

Australian Apartment Advocacy: 2021 Investor Insights

Australian Apartment Advocacy: 2021 Investor Insights

BIS Oxford Economics and Australian Apartment Advocacy delve into the apartment investment sector and just what can be expected for 2021 and beyond.

Maree Kilroy and Timothy Hibbert of BIS Oxford Economics provide a detailed forecast on apartment construction, prices, rents and any opportunities/risks for the sector looking forward.

Samantha Reece of AAA the outlines the organisations recent research with 1000 investors nationwide (completed May 2021) as to their optimism level with their apartment values, their preparedness to invest in apartments again and what the market will be looking out for.

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Research Briefing | Nov 19, 2021

Eurozone weekly economic briefing | Rising Covid cases in the eurozone – the tide has turned

Ipad Frame -Eurozone-weekly-briefing-Rising-Covid-cases-in-the-eurozone-the-tide-has-turned

As Covid cases continue to rise in Europe, some governments have started to introduce new restrictions, while others have been discussing potential measures. We expect targeted measures across some countries mainly according to the health situation, but other factors, such as domestic political situations, will be relevant.

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Research Briefing | Nov 19, 2021

Eurozone weekly economic briefing | Rising Covid cases in the eurozone – the tide has turned

Ipad Frame -Eurozone-weekly-briefing-Rising-Covid-cases-in-the-eurozone-the-tide-has-turned

As Covid cases continue to rise in Europe, some governments have started to introduce new restrictions, while others have been discussing potential measures. We expect targeted measures across some countries mainly according to the health situation, but other factors, such as domestic political situations, will be relevant.

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Research Briefing | Nov 19, 2021

Africa Country Insight: Ethiopia

Civil war in Ethiopia has put the country on a different developmental trajectory. International and regional stakeholders cautioned that Ethiopia is facing a “narrowing window” to find a diplomatic solution to the ongoing conflict, as territorial gains by the opposition coalition and military campaigns across multiple regional states now pose risks to regional stability.

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Research Briefing | Nov 19, 2021

Africa Country Insight: Ethiopia

Civil war in Ethiopia has put the country on a different developmental trajectory. International and regional stakeholders cautioned that Ethiopia is facing a “narrowing window” to find a diplomatic solution to the ongoing conflict, as territorial gains by the opposition coalition and military campaigns across multiple regional states now pose risks to regional stability.

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Research Briefing | Nov 19, 2021

Africa | Country Economic Forecast Ethiopia

Copy of Ipad Frame (4)

Ethiopia has declared a state of emergency as the government confronts an amalgamation of forces from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and other groups. Originally fashioned as a swift operation to bring a rebellious regional administration in line, the war dragged on and has now engulfed the north of the country. Developments on the security front to dictate the pace and direction of economic growth.

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Research Briefing | Nov 19, 2021

Africa | Country Economic Forecast Ethiopia

Copy of Ipad Frame (4)

Ethiopia has declared a state of emergency as the government confronts an amalgamation of forces from the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and other groups. Originally fashioned as a swift operation to bring a rebellious regional administration in line, the war dragged on and has now engulfed the north of the country. Developments on the security front to dictate the pace and direction of economic growth.

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Research Briefing | Nov 19, 2021

Australia | Border reopening progress spurring migration recovery

Copy of Ipad Frame (50)

After holding at an inflow of 246,300 p.a. over the four years to 2019, pandemic induced border restrictions are estimated to have pushed NOM to an outflow of 96,000 people in FY2021. NOM losses started to recede in the first half of 2021, with the pace of exits by temporary residents steadily easing. The Delta outbreak in New South Wales and Victoria resulted in a setback from July to October. 

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Research Briefing | Nov 19, 2021

Australia | Border reopening progress spurring migration recovery

Copy of Ipad Frame (50)

After holding at an inflow of 246,300 p.a. over the four years to 2019, pandemic induced border restrictions are estimated to have pushed NOM to an outflow of 96,000 people in FY2021. NOM losses started to recede in the first half of 2021, with the pace of exits by temporary residents steadily easing. The Delta outbreak in New South Wales and Victoria resulted in a setback from July to October. 

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Research Briefing | Nov 18, 2021

UAE and Qatar have the highest FDI attractiveness

MENA | UAE and Qatar have the highest FDI attractiveness

FDI is in an important pillar of growth and diversification agendas across the MENA region and, in particular, in the GCC. Several countries have set ambitious targets for FDI that see significant increases on FDI from the pre-Covid years.

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Research Briefing | Nov 18, 2021

UAE and Qatar have the highest FDI attractiveness

MENA | UAE and Qatar have the highest FDI attractiveness

FDI is in an important pillar of growth and diversification agendas across the MENA region and, in particular, in the GCC. Several countries have set ambitious targets for FDI that see significant increases on FDI from the pre-Covid years.

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Research Briefing | Nov 18, 2021

Eurozone | Low-flation risks to come back to the fore in late-2022

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-Low-flation-risks-to-come-back-to-the-fore-in-late-2022

We see little evidence that the outlook for underlying inflation in the eurozone is much changed from a few months ago. In fact, there’s a high probability that low-flation will make a comeback next year. Thus, speculation of European Central Bank (ECB) hikes in late-2022 seems way off the mark.

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Research Briefing | Nov 18, 2021

Eurozone | Low-flation risks to come back to the fore in late-2022

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-Low-flation-risks-to-come-back-to-the-fore-in-late-2022

We see little evidence that the outlook for underlying inflation in the eurozone is much changed from a few months ago. In fact, there’s a high probability that low-flation will make a comeback next year. Thus, speculation of European Central Bank (ECB) hikes in late-2022 seems way off the mark.

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Research Briefing | Nov 18, 2021

Denmark | Economy heats up as GDP surprises to the upside in Q3

Ipad Frame - Denmark-Economy-heats-up-as-GDP-surprises-to-the-upside-in-Q3

According to the advance estimate, Q3 GDP exceeded expectations with a 2% expansion. While this figure is subject to revision, Denmark is on course for very strong growth this year after the 2.1% GDP decline in 2020.

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Research Briefing | Nov 18, 2021

Denmark | Economy heats up as GDP surprises to the upside in Q3

Ipad Frame - Denmark-Economy-heats-up-as-GDP-surprises-to-the-upside-in-Q3

According to the advance estimate, Q3 GDP exceeded expectations with a 2% expansion. While this figure is subject to revision, Denmark is on course for very strong growth this year after the 2.1% GDP decline in 2020.

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Research Briefing

Philippines | Transitory inflation makes 2022 rate hikes unlikely

Rb image for Philippines_transitory_inflation_makes_2022_rate_hikes_unlikely

We concur with the central bank’s (BSP) view that the current rise in inflation in the Philippines is for the most part transitory, reflecting supply-side pressures. As such, we expect the BSP to maintain rates at their current levels until Q1 2023 to provide support for the economy.

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Research Briefing

Philippines | Transitory inflation makes 2022 rate hikes unlikely

Rb image for Philippines_transitory_inflation_makes_2022_rate_hikes_unlikely

We concur with the central bank’s (BSP) view that the current rise in inflation in the Philippines is for the most part transitory, reflecting supply-side pressures. As such, we expect the BSP to maintain rates at their current levels until Q1 2023 to provide support for the economy.

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Research Briefing | Nov 18, 2021

ASEAN growth tracker shows growth bottoming out

RB image for APAC_ASEAN_growth_tracker_shows_growth_bottoming

Real GDP for ASEAN-6 economies1 grew 1.7% y/y in Q3, down from 9.3% in Q2, reflecting both a less favourable base effect and a drop in growth momentum due to tightening restrictions. Our growth tracker was broadly in line with Q3 GDP for Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand, while GDP undershot the tracker for the Philippines, and to a lesser extent for Malaysia and Vietnam.

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Research Briefing | Nov 18, 2021

ASEAN growth tracker shows growth bottoming out

RB image for APAC_ASEAN_growth_tracker_shows_growth_bottoming

Real GDP for ASEAN-6 economies1 grew 1.7% y/y in Q3, down from 9.3% in Q2, reflecting both a less favourable base effect and a drop in growth momentum due to tightening restrictions. Our growth tracker was broadly in line with Q3 GDP for Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand, while GDP undershot the tracker for the Philippines, and to a lesser extent for Malaysia and Vietnam.

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Research Briefing | Nov 17, 2021

Finland | Q3 GDP growth in line with our expectation

Ipad Frame - Finland-Q3-GDP-growth-in-line-with-our-expectation

Finland’s GDP rose 0.9% in Q3 based on the flash estimate, in line with our forecast. High-frequency indicators show that the economy remains resilient amid mounting downside risks related to supply-chain bottlenecks and surging energy prices.

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Research Briefing | Nov 17, 2021

Finland | Q3 GDP growth in line with our expectation

Ipad Frame - Finland-Q3-GDP-growth-in-line-with-our-expectation

Finland’s GDP rose 0.9% in Q3 based on the flash estimate, in line with our forecast. High-frequency indicators show that the economy remains resilient amid mounting downside risks related to supply-chain bottlenecks and surging energy prices.

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Research Briefing

Sweden | Q3 GDP surprised on the upside, so we now forecast growth of 4.3% this year and 3.3% in 2022

Ipad Frame - Sweden-Q3-GDP-surprised-on-the-upside-so-we-now-forecast-growth-of-4.3%-this-year-and-3.3%-in-2022

Growth in Q3 surprised on the upside based on the flash estimate, with activity in the previous months revised up. As a result, our GDP growth forecasts for this and next year have been raised slightly to 4.3% and 3.3% respectively.

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Research Briefing

Sweden | Q3 GDP surprised on the upside, so we now forecast growth of 4.3% this year and 3.3% in 2022

Ipad Frame - Sweden-Q3-GDP-surprised-on-the-upside-so-we-now-forecast-growth-of-4.3%-this-year-and-3.3%-in-2022

Growth in Q3 surprised on the upside based on the flash estimate, with activity in the previous months revised up. As a result, our GDP growth forecasts for this and next year have been raised slightly to 4.3% and 3.3% respectively.

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