Finland | Q3 GDP growth in line with our expectation
Finland’s GDP rose 0.9% in Q3 based on the flash estimate, in line with our forecast. High-frequency indicators show that the economy remains resilient amid mounting downside risks related to supply-chain bottlenecks and surging energy prices.
What you will learn:
- Virus transmission remains contained even after all restrictions were lifted, as almost 85% of adults are fully vaccinated.
- We expect solid growth in the near term; our forecast for GDP growth this year is 3.5% before a slowdown to 2.3% in 2022, both the same as last month.
- Consumer confidence in October moderated from the multi-year high in September, when all pandemic restrictions were lifted.
Finland’s growth forecast cut amid weak confidence and soaring inflation
We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Finland to 1.5% from 1.7% last month, as weakening confidence further dampens the outlook. We expect inflation to peak higher with a greater passthrough to core prices, squeezing real incomes and denting consumption. Russia has accounted for almost 10% of Finland's goods trade, among the highest in Europe.Find Out More
Why we see eurozone inflation slowing sharply next year
We have revised our 2022 eurozone inflation forecasts sharply higher, to 6.0%, since the start of the Ukraine war, as energy and food prices began to soar and new supply bottlenecks emerged. That said, we still see inflation decelerating sharply to 1.3% in 2023, putting us below consensus. While we recognise significant risks to our views, inflation should slow to below 2% in H2 2023.Find Out More