Research Briefing | Nov 23, 2021

Europe’s labour shortages – not all equal

Eurozone | Europe’s labour shortages – not all equal

Although reported labour shortages in the eurozone appear to be worsening, our analysis of the underlying dynamics shows a more nuanced picture. We think the shortages in manufacturing and services are more cyclical in nature and should ease faster, while those in construction appear more structural.

What you will learn:

  • Severe labour shortages in manufacturing and services are occurring amid a strong cyclical rebound in demand, which we expect to revert to trend in line with forward-looking indicators.
  • This is not the case for construction, where we expect demand to remain elevated.
  • Both the manufacturing and services sectors can draw on untapped labour resources, as employment in each is still around 2% below pre-pandemic levels.
  • Employment and vacancies in construction have already surpassed their previous peaks and scope for productivity gains is limited.
Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Seoul, South Korea

Post

BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends

Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.

Find Out More

Post

China: Emerging green shoots in Spring, but not out of the woods

We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.2% previously).

Find Out More