ASEAN growth tracker shows growth bottoming out
Real GDP for ASEAN-6 economies1 grew 1.7% y/y in Q3, down from 9.3% in Q2, reflecting both a less favourable base effect and a drop in growth momentum due to tightening restrictions. Our growth tracker was broadly in line with Q3 GDP for Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand, while GDP undershot the tracker for the Philippines, and to a lesser extent for Malaysia and Vietnam.
What you will learn from this report:
- While growth in the ASEAN-6 economies slowed sharply in Q3, our monthly growth tracker reveals the deceleration stabilising by quarter-end. After trending downward in July and August, the tracker steadied in September.
- Exports and air traffic continued to contribute positively to the tracker throughout the third quarter, notwithstanding a weakening export momentum in recent months. And though industrial production and retail sales were a drag due to domestic restrictions and supply chain disruptions, retail sales improved from August to September.
- With restrictions easing, we think growth will pick up pace from October onwards. Except for Singapore, we still expect below-trend growth for ASEAN-6 economies this year despite favourable base effect. And, as economies adjust to living with Covid, we forecast above-trend growth for the ASEAN bloc in 2022 and 2023..
Commodity markets shrug off Red Sea attacks
Commodity markets have barely reacted to Red Sea attacks, and we think the impact on prices will be minimal. As a result, we have not changed our price forecasts beyond a very short-term upward revision to crude oil and gold prices.Find Out More
Names will never hurt me –EM monetary credibility remains intact
Emerging market (EM) central banks' credibility to restrain inflation over the medium-term horizon remains intact despite the tests it's been subjected to in an age of supply shocks and massive income disappointments – and despite name-calling by some banks' political masters.Find Out More