Research Briefing

Sweden | Q3 GDP surprised on the upside, so we now forecast growth of 4.3% this year and 3.3% in 2022

Ipad Frame - Sweden-Q3-GDP-surprised-on-the-upside-so-we-now-forecast-growth-of-4.3%-this-year-and-3.3%-in-2022

Growth in Q3 surprised on the upside based on the flash estimate, with activity in the previous months revised up. As a result, our GDP growth forecasts for this and next year have been raised slightly to 4.3% and 3.3% respectively.

What you will learn:

  • Although the outlook for Sweden is strong given its high vaccination rate and no more restrictions, there are downside risks related to persistent supply-chain bottlenecks in industry and surging energy prices.
  • Monthly indicators suggest growth in September was led by the production side of the economy, with private sector output up 1.6% m/m, while household consumption was flat at 0.1%.
  • The job recovery continues at a steady pace.

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