Australia | Border reopening progress spurring migration recovery
After holding at an inflow of 246,300 p.a. over the four years to 2019, pandemic induced border restrictions are estimated to have pushed NOM to an outflow of 96,000 people in FY2021. NOM losses started to recede in the first half of 2021, with the pace of exits by temporary residents steadily easing. The Delta outbreak in New South Wales and Victoria resulted in a setback from July to October.
What you will learn:
- With the cap on international arrivals (excl. New Zealand) halving from 6,370 to 3,185 per week from mid-July, a sustained net outflow over the second half of 2021 is expected.
- Internal migration to regional Australia is expected to hold at an elevated base over the next few years, while net interstate migration (NIM) to Queensland has been upgraded, reaching an estimated net inflow of 35,000 in FY2022.
- Uncertainty is high, with road bumps to be expected throughout the reopening process. Given the announcements made over the past month, and significant stored demand to migrate to Australia, near-term risk has tilted further to the upside.
Tags:
Related Services

Post
Firms must brace for higher ‘new normal’ construction material prices
New research by Oxford Economics suggests that construction materials prices have shifted permanently higher due to the shocks of the past couple of years. Project managers and investors should anticipate costs being at least 15-20% higher in 2024 and onwards than in 2021.
Find Out More
Post
New Activity Trackers suggest momentum is waning
After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.
Find Out More