China key themes 2022: Easier policy amid weaker growth
We see China’s economy entering 2022 with weaker growth. Our forecast has GDP growth dipping to 3.6% y/y in Q4 2021. And we expect 5.4% GDP growth in 2022, with the economy shaped by three key themes:
- Theme 1: the housing slowdown and China’s Covid stance weigh on growth, especially in early 2022.
- Theme 2: economic policy turns more supportive of growth, in response to the downward pressure on growth.
- Theme 3: amid continued reform and opening up, decoupling pressures remain modest despite unhappiness abroad about China’s state-led development.
Download our report to find out more.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Latin America Key Themes 2024 – Slower growth, but it’s not all bad news
Growth in most LatAm economies will be below consensus. Economic momentum has surprised to the upside through most of 2023, but the full effects of record global and domestic monetary tightening are yet to be seen.
Find Out More
Post
Easing financial conditions offer CRE some respite
Our measure of financial conditions has become less restrictive in the US and started to loosen in the eurozone and the UK, reflecting investors' expectations that interest rates have peaked. This should aid the outlook for commercial real estate (CRE) on the margins, although the scale of past rate hikes, sluggish economies, and structural headwinds mean the sector still confronts challenging fundamentals.
Find Out More