China key themes 2022: Easier policy amid weaker growth
We see China’s economy entering 2022 with weaker growth. Our forecast has GDP growth dipping to 3.6% y/y in Q4 2021. And we expect 5.4% GDP growth in 2022, with the economy shaped by three key themes:
- Theme 1: the housing slowdown and China’s Covid stance weigh on growth, especially in early 2022.
- Theme 2: economic policy turns more supportive of growth, in response to the downward pressure on growth.
- Theme 3: amid continued reform and opening up, decoupling pressures remain modest despite unhappiness abroad about China’s state-led development.
Download our report to find out more.
Tags:
Related Services

Post
BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends
Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.
Find Out More
Post
China: Emerging green shoots in Spring, but not out of the woods
We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.2% previously).
Find Out More