China key themes 2022: Easier policy amid weaker growth
We see China’s economy entering 2022 with weaker growth. Our forecast has GDP growth dipping to 3.6% y/y in Q4 2021. And we expect 5.4% GDP growth in 2022, with the economy shaped by three key themes:
- Theme 1: the housing slowdown and China’s Covid stance weigh on growth, especially in early 2022.
- Theme 2: economic policy turns more supportive of growth, in response to the downward pressure on growth.
- Theme 3: amid continued reform and opening up, decoupling pressures remain modest despite unhappiness abroad about China’s state-led development.
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