Research Briefing | Dec 2, 2021

China key themes 2022: Easier policy amid weaker growth

China-key-themes-2022-first page

We see China’s economy entering 2022 with weaker growth. Our forecast has GDP growth dipping to 3.6% y/y in Q4 2021. And we expect 5.4% GDP growth in 2022, with the economy shaped by three key themes:

  • Theme 1: the housing slowdown and China’s Covid stance weigh on growth, especially in early 2022.
  • Theme 2: economic policy turns more supportive of growth, in response to the downward pressure on growth.
  • Theme 3: amid continued reform and opening up, decoupling pressures remain modest despite unhappiness abroad about China’s state-led development.

Download our report to find out more. 

Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

construction site

Post

Firms must brace for higher ‘new normal’ construction material prices

New research by Oxford Economics suggests that construction materials prices have shifted permanently higher due to the shocks of the past couple of years. Project managers and investors should anticipate costs being at least 15-20% higher in 2024 and onwards than in 2021.

Find Out More

Post

New Activity Trackers suggest momentum is waning

After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.

Find Out More