China key themes 2022: Easier policy amid weaker growth
We see China’s economy entering 2022 with weaker growth. Our forecast has GDP growth dipping to 3.6% y/y in Q4 2021. And we expect 5.4% GDP growth in 2022, with the economy shaped by three key themes:
- Theme 1: the housing slowdown and China’s Covid stance weigh on growth, especially in early 2022.
- Theme 2: economic policy turns more supportive of growth, in response to the downward pressure on growth.
- Theme 3: amid continued reform and opening up, decoupling pressures remain modest despite unhappiness abroad about China’s state-led development.
Download our report to find out more.
Easing financial conditions offer CRE some respite
Our measure of financial conditions has become less restrictive in the US and started to loosen in the eurozone and the UK, reflecting investors' expectations that interest rates have peaked. This should aid the outlook for commercial real estate (CRE) on the margins, although the scale of past rate hikes, sluggish economies, and structural headwinds mean the sector still confronts challenging fundamentals.Find Out More
Eurozone key themes 2024 – A fragile recovery will gain impulse
After a year of stagnating activity, the eurozone economy will continue to struggle to gain traction in the near term given multiple headwinds. But we expect a gradual recovery in 2024 that will gather momentum as consumers regain some of their lost purchasing power and financial conditions ease.Find Out More