Norway | Outlook for 2022 holding firm despite inflation and Covid headwinds
Our 2021 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.9% after the 2.6% Q3 expansion was broadly in line with our estimate, and we continue to expect a 4.1% growth in 2022. After an unusually strong August print, GDP rose 0.6% m/m in September as private consumption growth remained solid.
What you will learn:
- A sharp rise in Covid cases both domestically and abroad has emerged as a downside risk during the winter and into the new year, but we don’t think it currently warrants significant forecast revisions.
- Consumption was the principal mainland growth driver during Q3, rising 6% thanks to a strong resurgence in services spending, while goods spending held firm despite some normalisation in consumption patterns.
- Exports rose by 6.5% thanks to strong demand for oil and natural gas from Europe and increased extraction activities, but exports of manufacturing goods failed to return above the Q1 2021 peak.
Big shifts are underway in Russia-China trade
Data for Q3 on the volume of China's imports of crude from Russia show a drop against the June level. Rather than an indication that China's demand has peaked, this may be a sign that China is preparing for the Russian oil price cap recently agreed by G7 by shifting some of its purchases to the grey market.Find Out More
Indonesia likely to miss fiscal target in 2023
We expect Indonesia's budget balance to show a large deficit in H2 of this year as the cost of fuel subsidies is finally reflected in the fiscal accounts.Find Out More