Norway | Outlook for 2022 holding firm despite inflation and Covid headwinds
Our 2021 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.9% after the 2.6% Q3 expansion was broadly in line with our estimate, and we continue to expect a 4.1% growth in 2022. After an unusually strong August print, GDP rose 0.6% m/m in September as private consumption growth remained solid.
What you will learn:
- A sharp rise in Covid cases both domestically and abroad has emerged as a downside risk during the winter and into the new year, but we don’t think it currently warrants significant forecast revisions.
- Consumption was the principal mainland growth driver during Q3, rising 6% thanks to a strong resurgence in services spending, while goods spending held firm despite some normalisation in consumption patterns.
- Exports rose by 6.5% thanks to strong demand for oil and natural gas from Europe and increased extraction activities, but exports of manufacturing goods failed to return above the Q1 2021 peak.
Tags:
Related Services
Post
Firms must brace for higher ‘new normal’ construction material prices
New research by Oxford Economics suggests that construction materials prices have shifted permanently higher due to the shocks of the past couple of years. Project managers and investors should anticipate costs being at least 15-20% higher in 2024 and onwards than in 2021.
Find Out More
Post
New Activity Trackers suggest momentum is waning
After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.
Find Out More