Norway | Outlook for 2022 holding firm despite inflation and Covid headwinds

Our 2021 mainland GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 3.9% after the 2.6% Q3 expansion was broadly in line with our estimate, and we continue to expect a 4.1% growth in 2022. After an unusually strong August print, GDP rose 0.6% m/m in September as private consumption growth remained solid.

What you will learn:

• A sharp rise in Covid cases both domestically and abroad has emerged as a downside risk during the winter and into the new year, but we don’t think it currently warrants significant forecast revisions.
• Consumption was the principal mainland growth driver during Q3, rising 6% thanks to a strong resurgence in services spending, while goods spending held firm despite some normalisation in consumption patterns.
• Exports rose by 6.5% thanks to strong demand for oil and natural gas from Europe and increased extraction activities, but exports of manufacturing goods failed to return above the Q1 2021 peak.