Asia exports look to improve in 2022
The level of Asian exports in volume terms has been stagnant in H2 2021. In addition, across the major manufacturing exporting economies, there have been significant disparities in export performance. Our analysis finds these differences stem from compositional differences in export products and supply-side constraints.
What you will learn:
- In China and Japan, real exports have fallen, whereas Korea and Taiwan have seen a pickup in shipments.
- Across emerging Asia, Indonesian exports have outperformed, helped by strengthening demand for commodities. Other countries such as Vietnam have struggled, with Delta outbreaks severely impairing trade flows in Q3.
- We see scope for a pickup in export momentum across the region from Q2 2022 onwards, as supply-chain pressures ease and the global recovery drives demand.
Slowdown in 2023, except for Chinese cities
Growth across advanced Asia Pacific cities is slowing down in 2022's second half, and their full-year growth rates will trend downwards in 2023. In emerging Asian cities, we expect an uptick in growth in 2022, followed by a marked weakening in 2023.Find Out More
The terminal policy rate is in sight for India
We expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hike another 35bps-50bps at its meeting this month. We think the bounce back in India's CPI to 7% in August and a hawkish US Federal Reserve justify the move. However, a dovish RBI pivot is not far off.Find Out More