Asia exports look to improve in 2022
The level of Asian exports in volume terms has been stagnant in H2 2021. In addition, across the major manufacturing exporting economies, there have been significant disparities in export performance. Our analysis finds these differences stem from compositional differences in export products and supply-side constraints.
What you will learn:
- In China and Japan, real exports have fallen, whereas Korea and Taiwan have seen a pickup in shipments.
- Across emerging Asia, Indonesian exports have outperformed, helped by strengthening demand for commodities. Other countries such as Vietnam have struggled, with Delta outbreaks severely impairing trade flows in Q3.
- We see scope for a pickup in export momentum across the region from Q2 2022 onwards, as supply-chain pressures ease and the global recovery drives demand.
APAC Key themes 2024 – A year of living cautiously
In 2024, the main influence on Asia is likely to be a global slowdown, particularly in China and the US. Moreover, governments have limited policy space to deal with these headwinds. Other negative influences, however, are set to ease further, including domestic inflation, external pressure on interest rates, and softening semiconductor prices. Overall, we expect a bumpy year as issues become more country-specific and policy responses and economic outcomes diverge.Find Out More
Wage rises in 2024 look set to be as high as this year in Japan
More market participants appear to have become confident that the wage-driven inflation is real, which will encourage the Bank of Japan to start normalizing its super-accommodative monetary policy in 2024. We revised up our projection for the spring wage settlement in 2024 to match the strength of the settlement in 2023. We believe that wage increase will continue after 2025, but achieving wage-led 2% inflation is still a long way off.Find Out More