Asia exports look to improve in 2022
The level of Asian exports in volume terms has been stagnant in H2 2021. In addition, across the major manufacturing exporting economies, there have been significant disparities in export performance. Our analysis finds these differences stem from compositional differences in export products and supply-side constraints.
What you will learn:
- In China and Japan, real exports have fallen, whereas Korea and Taiwan have seen a pickup in shipments.
- Across emerging Asia, Indonesian exports have outperformed, helped by strengthening demand for commodities. Other countries such as Vietnam have struggled, with Delta outbreaks severely impairing trade flows in Q3.
- We see scope for a pickup in export momentum across the region from Q2 2022 onwards, as supply-chain pressures ease and the global recovery drives demand.
APAC: Policymakers’ inflation worries should soon start to subside
Inflation in Asia over the past year has by and large been a story of external supply shocks, rather than excess demand. And with those external forces now easing, so too are we seeing inflationary pressures start to recede. We think inflation will drop much further over the first half of this year, giving policymakers the space to stop raising rates.Find Out More
Untangling financial conditions in the ASEAN-5
Financial conditions have deteriorated across ASEAN-5 economies to varying degrees. As well as monetary tightening, a broad depreciation of currencies and rising long-term rates are weighing on financial conditions generally across the region.Find Out More