Research Briefing

The global real estate rebound is under threat

Ipad Frame - The-global-real-estate-rebound-is-under-threat

A less positive economic outlook and rising downside risks are threatening the global real estate recovery. Our baseline forecast is for global all property returns to grow by 7.6% pa over 2022-2023. But risk-adjusted returns are weaker, at 7.3% pa, based on the weighted-average of all risk scenarios.

What you will learn:

  • The biggest risk to the real estate cycle is inflation, which in our return of inflation risk scenario lowers all property performance to 4.4% pa.
  • Prolonged supply-chain disruptions are seen as the greatest risk by our real estate clients.
  • Conversely, under a consumer boom scenario, all property returns jump 2.4ppts above the baseline.
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