US Recovery Tracker drops on Omicron and seasonal drags
The US Recovery Tracker fell sharply in late November as news of the Omicron variant hit financial markets, exacerbating the typical seasonal Thanksgiving holiday drag. Demand was the only dimension that strengthened as the tracker fell 3.1ppts in the week ended Nov. 26, to 96.6, its lowest level since September.
We believe 50% of the decline reflects a seasonal drag that has since been undone, while another 30% has been reversed by the equity market rebound following the Nov. 26 plunge.
What you will learn:
- Nearly all US states registered lower readings, led by a sharp deterioration in the East.
- Notwithstanding slower economic momentum from the elevated inflation environment, renewed Covid concerns, and heightened market volatility, the economy is still growing strongly.
- Assuming the Omicron variant only leads to a moderate pullback in growth and some catch-up next spring and summer, we foresee real GDP growth of 4.4% in 2022 after a 5.7% estimated advance in 2021.
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