Unchanged growth for Finland, as weaker activity in the near-term will be reversed later in the year
Our forecast for Finland’s GDP growth is 3.5% this year before a slowdown to 2.3% in 2022, both unchanged from last month. Growth in Q3 was revised down marginally to 0.8%, although the economy is comfortably above pre-pandemic levels. The pandemic has re-emerged as the key downside risk to the near-term outlook, due to surging new cases and the Omicron variant.
What you will learn:
- As previous quarters were revised up slightly, the small downward revision to Q3 GDP does not affect the full-year average.
- Consumer confidence in November continued to fall from the multi-year high in September, when all pandemic restrictions were lifted.
- The employment rate has already recovered to its pre-pandemic level and the unemployment rate was down to 6.7% in October, while companies in construction and industry report large labour shortages.
US: High debt costs suggest an industrial correction
The scale of the increases in debt costs, coupled with the low-yielding environment makes some repricing highly likely for gateway US industrial markets over the coming quarters.Find Out More
High debt costs suggest European office price correction
Our analysis suggests a 10% correction is needed on average for the major office markets in Europe to compensate for the higher cost of debt, with prime yields required to soften by 10bps-75bps to generate a low-risk interest coverage ratio at a reasonable LTV.Find Out More