Research Briefing | Dec 14, 2021

Easing supply bottlenecks to bolster Eurozone industrial rebound

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-Easing-supply-bottlenecks-to-bolster-industrial-rebound

The easing of the severe supply-chain bottlenecks that brought the eurozone’s industrial recovery to a standstill in early 2021 will be gradual, with setbacks along the way very possible. But we see signs that the worst is over and we expect eurozone industrial production to grow a strong 4% in 2022. This year’s laggards – Germany and the auto sector – are likely to outperform.

What you will learn:

  • The clearest indication of easing is in the supply of intermediate goods, where clogging due to the massive restocking cycle and hoarding of inputs is fading.
  • Progress in vaccinating the global factory workforce suggests that the drag from Covid-related supply disruptions should begin to fade.
  • Resolving the semiconductor shortage, where an upshift in demand has coincided with severe supply constraints, may take longer.
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