Research Briefing | Dec 17, 2021

Omicron threat looms large for Europe’s outlook

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-weekly-briefing- Omicron-threat-looms-large-for-Europes-outlook

The spread of Omicron across Europe will probably see a surge in infections over the coming weeks that could surpass all previous waves. Although there is still a lot of uncertainty around the characteristics of this new variant, with indications that it could be less severe than previous ones, the sheer number of infections will inevitably increase pressure on health systems and will weigh on consumer behaviour and increase voluntary social distancing.

What you will learn:

  • Monthly indicators continue to show the eurozone economy is losing momentum at the end of the year, with Germany in particular looking like one of the hardest-hit economies.
  • Our view remains that Q4 and Q1 will see a significant slowdown in eurozone GDP growth, but we should see a strong recovery once the medical situation improves again.
  • The ECB is gradually moving towards a more hawkish position given the inflationary pressures are proving stronger and more persistent than expected, while the growth outlook remains robust despite pandemic risks.
Back to Resource Hub

Related research

Post

Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for Africa?

The question of debt restructuring is becoming a more pressing one: in recent weeks, a number of African sovereigns have openly or discreetly mulled public debt reorganisation, called for debt relief, or suffered credit rating downgrades owing to rising default odds.

Find Out More

Post

Big shifts are underway in Russia-China trade

Data for Q3 on the volume of China's imports of crude from Russia show a drop against the June level. Rather than an indication that China's demand has peaked, this may be a sign that China is preparing for the Russian oil price cap recently agreed by G7 by shifting some of its purchases to the grey market.

Find Out More