Research Briefing | Dec 23, 2021

The wait for decisive news in the UK on Omicron goes on

United Kingdom | The wait for decisive news on Omicron goes on

Though the government has opted to defer a decision on introducing further restrictions until after Christmas, it seems likely that a mix of greater consumer caution and reduced mobility will ensure that the UK’s GDP falls in December.
The first financial support for businesses was announced this week. But the days of policy support going big and going early are long gone.

What you will learn:

  • Additional assistance will surely be needed if the period of disruption is extended, particularly if new restrictions force some sectors to close for a period.
  • Hospitalisations currently remain low, but they are rising sharply in London, which has been the centre of the UK’s Omicron outbreak. Early studies show a lower share of those infected with Omicron are likely to require hospital treatment compared with Delta.
  • The high case numbers have also brought widespread incidences of labour shortages. In response, the government has reduced the mandatory period of self-isolation for those testing positive from 10 days to seven, provided the infected person has returned two negative lateral flow tests, a change which should help at the margin.
Back to Resource Hub

Related research

Seoul, South Korea

Post

BoK’s monetary policy to tighten even as hiking cycle ends

Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy rate. We expect this will be the case for the Bank of Korea this year, as the gap between the policy rate and the nominal neutral rate widens.

Find Out More

Post

China: Emerging green shoots in Spring, but not out of the woods

We now incorporate a faster recovery from the post-Covid exit wave and raise our 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 4.2% previously).

Find Out More