Omicron weighs on near-term growth outlook for Norway
Based on the positive carryover effects from two strong months of GDP growth in August and September, we have raised our mainland GDP forecasts for mainland Norway to 4.1% in 2021 and 4.3% in 2022. Still, we expect the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant to impact growth towards the end of Q4 and into the start of next year as new restrictions are enacted.
What you will learn:
- High vaccination coverage should preclude the reimposition of strict restrictions, but new limits on hospitality will push back the recovery of services.
- Spending on services surpassed pre-pandemic levels as October marked the first full month without domestic restrictions on activity.
- With energy prices falling in November, the current account should start to decline to an average 10.7% of GDP over 2022.
Tags:
Related research
Post
Latin America Key Themes 2024 – Slower growth, but it’s not all bad news
Growth in most LatAm economies will be below consensus. Economic momentum has surprised to the upside through most of 2023, but the full effects of record global and domestic monetary tightening are yet to be seen.
Find Out More
Post
Easing financial conditions offer CRE some respite
Our measure of financial conditions has become less restrictive in the US and started to loosen in the eurozone and the UK, reflecting investors' expectations that interest rates have peaked. This should aid the outlook for commercial real estate (CRE) on the margins, although the scale of past rate hikes, sluggish economies, and structural headwinds mean the sector still confronts challenging fundamentals.
Find Out More