Research Briefing | Jan 19, 2022

European real estate obsolescence risk lowest for the Nordics

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Our new index of European real estate obsolescence finds that the Nordic countries have the lowest risk of obsolescence and are best placed for the climate transition.

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Research Briefing | Jan 19, 2022

European real estate obsolescence risk lowest for the Nordics

Ipad Frame - Europe-Real-estate-obsolescence-risk-lowest-for-the-Nordics

Our new index of European real estate obsolescence finds that the Nordic countries have the lowest risk of obsolescence and are best placed for the climate transition.

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Research Briefing | Jan 19, 2022

Denmark’s successful virus containment strategy means Omicron will not derail growth in 2022

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We’ve lowered our 2022 Danish GDP forecast 0.1ppt to 3%, with the Omicron variant expected to slow activity in Q1. But the economy should make up the lost ground in the following quarters as the new restrictions – which have been quite benign – have already begun to be eased.

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Research Briefing | Jan 19, 2022

Denmark’s successful virus containment strategy means Omicron will not derail growth in 2022

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Research Briefing | Jan 18, 2022

Egypt: When hot money is not so hot

Egypt | When hot money is not so hot

Egypt has become a bit too reliant on portfolio inflows to keep its external position afloat. This is a vulnerable position, and a sudden shift in emerging market sentiment could see capital inflows reverse – posing a serious threat to foreign reserves.

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Research Briefing | Jan 18, 2022

Egypt: When hot money is not so hot

Egypt | When hot money is not so hot

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Research Briefing | Jan 18, 2022

Japan – BoJ dismisses growing concerns over weaker yen

Japan | BoJ dismisses growing concerns over weaker yen

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left monetary policy unchanged at today’s meeting, maintaining current short- and long-term interest rates. Commodity price increases and a weaker yen have driven up the median CPI forecast in the BoJ’s Outlook Report, yet inflation remains short of the bank’s 2% target, with inflation projected at 1.1% for both FY2022 and FY2023.

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Research Briefing | Jan 18, 2022

Japan – BoJ dismisses growing concerns over weaker yen

Japan | BoJ dismisses growing concerns over weaker yen

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Research Briefing | Jan 18, 2022

Sweden 2022 GDP growth forecast remains as expected despite Omicron

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We have kept our growth forecast for this year unchanged at 3.2%, as we expect the impact of the Omicron wave to be mild. The latest data on production and consumption confirm this. Although recently tightened, we expect Sweden to maintain minimal formal restrictions.

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Research Briefing | Jan 18, 2022

Sweden 2022 GDP growth forecast remains as expected despite Omicron

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This report, commissioned by ASOS, explores the jobs, GDP, and payments to governments that ASOS supported in 2019-2020, along with its social investment programmes.

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Research Briefing | Jan 17, 2022

Global logistics challenges more than just port bottlenecks

Ipad Frame - Global logistics challenges more than just port bottlenecks

The pandemic has tested the adaptability and resilience of transport and logistics companies. With consumers focusing their spending on goods rather than on services during lockdowns, global container throughput regained its pre-pandemic level of activity relatively quickly. However, shortages across numerous dimensions—namely in labour, warehouse space, and truck trailers—have meant supply has struggled to keep pace with firm consumer demand.

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Research Briefing | Jan 17, 2022

Global logistics challenges more than just port bottlenecks

Ipad Frame - Global logistics challenges more than just port bottlenecks

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Research Briefing | Jan 17, 2022

US retail real estate pricing rebound looks unlikely

US retail real estate pricing rebound looks unlikely cover

Much has been written about the rebound in US retail fundamentals with some real estate commentators suggesting that the strengthening near-term demand outlook for the sector will result in increased investor interest and a recovery in pricing levels, specifically for the wearied mall segment. We believe this argument is overblown.

What you will learn:

Our current retail forecasts call for market returns that are markedly weaker than pre-Covid performance.
The flood of capital chasing real estate and driving down yields elsewhere in the property market will likely bypass retail as yields soften over the near term.
While fundamentals have improved recently, the temporary cyclical recovery will soon wane and the structural headwinds facing the sector will take centre stage once again.

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Research Briefing | Jan 17, 2022

US retail real estate pricing rebound looks unlikely

US retail real estate pricing rebound looks unlikely cover

What you will learn:

Our current retail forecasts call for market returns that are markedly weaker than pre-Covid performance.
The flood of capital chasing real estate and driving down yields elsewhere in the property market will likely bypass retail as yields soften over the near term.
While fundamentals have improved recently, the temporary cyclical recovery will soon wane and the structural headwinds facing the sector will take centre stage once again.

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Research Briefing | Jan 17, 2022

Mixed news on the UK growth outlook

United Kingdom | Mixed news on the growth outlook

A strong outturn for November took the output measure of GDP above its pre-pandemic peak. Given GDP is likely to have fallen in December, the quarterly version probably didn’t pass this landmark in Q4. However, timely data suggests the hit from Omicron will be small and relatively short-lived.

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Research Briefing | Jan 17, 2022

Mixed news on the UK growth outlook

United Kingdom | Mixed news on the growth outlook

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Research Briefing | Jan 17, 2022

Eurozone | Industry offering some hope for a better year ahead

Strong industrial production numbers for November offer some hope that the worst is over, supporting our view of a gradual resolution of supply-side issues. Moreover, the strong gains in Spain and Italy could very likely result in some positive surprises for Q4 GDP.

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Research Briefing | Jan 17, 2022

Eurozone | Industry offering some hope for a better year ahead

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Research Briefing | Jan 15, 2022

Omicron wave is expected to have a mild impact on the Finnish economy

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Our forecast for Finland’s GDP growth is 2.3% this year and 1.5% in 2023, both unchanged from last month. Despite a recent surge in Covid cases related to the spread of the Omicron variant, formal restrictions remain light and pressure on hospitals is limited.

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Research Briefing | Jan 15, 2022

Omicron wave is expected to have a mild impact on the Finnish economy

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Research Briefing | Jan 14, 2022

Geneva stalemate isn’t an endgame

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This week’s talks between Russia, on one side, and on the other the US, NATO and the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), have not resulted in an agreement. Russia and Ukraine’s markets reacted nervously: RUB depreciated to 77 vs USD in yesterday’s trading and the Ukrainian hryvnia fell to nearly 28 vs USD from 27.5 early this week.

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Research Briefing | Jan 14, 2022

Geneva stalemate isn’t an endgame

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Research Briefing | Jan 13, 2022

Solid pay rebound won’t trigger a wage-price spiral in the eurozone

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We expect the solid recovery of the labour market and the lagged impact from the 2021 inflation surge to trigger a sharp pick-up in wage growth in the eurozone.

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Research Briefing | Jan 13, 2022

Solid pay rebound won’t trigger a wage-price spiral in the eurozone

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We expect the solid recovery of the labour market and the lagged impact from the 2021 inflation surge to trigger a sharp pick-up in wage growth in the eurozone.

Sustainability strategy has gained a lot of traction among many, if not all, companies. How does the new focus on this strategy affect innovation, technology, and the bottom line?

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Research Briefing | Jan 12, 2022

Eurozone Recovery Tracker slows down further over Christmas

Our eurozone Recovery Tracker saw further deterioration over the Christmas period, falling 1.5pts to 79.1 in the three weeks ended December 26. High-frequency data tend to be noisy around the end of the year. But the direction of travel is clear, and the indicators seem to confirm a further slowdown ahead.

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Research Briefing | Jan 12, 2022

Eurozone Recovery Tracker slows down further over Christmas

News|11 January 2022

Introducing Oxford Economics’ new Real Estate Economics Service

Oxford Economics is proud to announce the launch of its new Real Estate Economics Service. The service helps companies understand the implications of macroeconomic, geopolitical, financial and climate change developments on private and public real estate performance. It is the first globally consistent and independent set of real estate forecasts, the service offers regular analysis and commentary from our highly experienced team of real estate economists.

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Research Briefing | Jan 11, 2022

Omicron impact should be fleeting for United Kingdom

United Kingdom | Omicron impact should be fleeting

The hit to UK GDP from Omicron is likely to be much smaller than previous Covid waves and the economy will bounce back quickly after a 0.6% m/m drop in December. While economically meaningful restrictions were few, activity fell due to voluntary social distancing and the disruption to labour supply from large numbers of workers isolating.

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Research Briefing | Jan 11, 2022

Omicron impact should be fleeting for United Kingdom

United Kingdom | Omicron impact should be fleeting

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Research Briefing | Jan 10, 2022

US supply chain remained strained at year end

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Our US supply-chain stress tracker offers some encouraging news to kick off the new year. Pressures on the inventory front diminished in December, albeit modestly. However, logistics bottlenecks remained – despite improvement on the surface in our transportation tracker measure. Meanwhile, stress rose on the activity, price, and labour fronts. The Omicron variant threatens to jam the economy’s gears, intensifying already severe supply-chain problems.

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Research Briefing | Jan 10, 2022

US supply chain remained strained at year end

Ipad Frame - US Supply chain remained strained at year end-1

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Research Briefing | Jan 10, 2022

US Recovery Tracker slips as Covid surges and holidays near

Ipad Frame - US Recovery Tracker slips as Covid surges and holidays near

The US Recovery Tracker recorded its second straight loss in the week ended Dec. 24, down 0.3ppts to 97.7. Typical weakness ahead of the holiday season partly explains the lower reading, with Covid-19 sharing in the blame. However, stronger demand, fairly stable mobility, and looser financial conditions mean that the recovery hasn’t gotten off track.

Nearly all of our State Recovery Trackers recorded lower readings in the latest week. The tracker would normally bounce back after this seasonal weakness, but the worrying health situation could squash the rebound. Current case rates have already vastly exceeded past infection waves, public officials are reimposing containment measures, and consumers and businesses are more cautious.

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Research Briefing | Jan 10, 2022

US Recovery Tracker slips as Covid surges and holidays near

Ipad Frame - US Recovery Tracker slips as Covid surges and holidays near

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Research Briefing | Jan 7, 2022

Eurozone weekly economic briefing – A mixed start to the year

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The news for Europe at the start of the year has been mixed. The spread of the Omicron variant has resulted in a predictable surge in infections, in many countries widely surpassing previous waves.

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Research Briefing | Jan 7, 2022

Eurozone weekly economic briefing – A mixed start to the year

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The news for Europe at the start of the year has been mixed. The spread of the Omicron variant has resulted in a predictable surge in infections, in many countries widely surpassing previous waves.