OE Logo
Request a trial

93digital

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 28, 2022

Energy tensions in the eurozone will keep inflation high

Eurozone | Energy tensions will keep inflation high

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to put pressure on energy
prices, which remain at extremely high levels. Barring a quick resolution of the conflict, high energy prices are likely to keep eurozone inflation elevated over the coming months, further squeezing households’ incomes and putting
additional pressure on the ECB to resist calls to raise interest rates.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 28, 2022

Energy tensions in the eurozone will keep inflation high

Eurozone | Energy tensions will keep inflation high

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to put pressure on energy
prices, which remain at extremely high levels. Barring a quick resolution of the conflict, high energy prices are likely to keep eurozone inflation elevated over the coming months, further squeezing households’ incomes and putting
additional pressure on the ECB to resist calls to raise interest rates.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 28, 2022

Global real estate to outperform bonds and equities

Global | Real estate to outperform bonds and equities

Global real estate returns are looking healthy over the next five years, providing a strong relative performance versus bonds and equities. We forecast total returns for global direct real estate and REITs to average 6.5% to 7% annually over 2022-2026, significantly above bonds and equities, which are projected to return 0.7% and 2.5% per annum, respectively.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 28, 2022

Global real estate to outperform bonds and equities

Global | Real estate to outperform bonds and equities

Global real estate returns are looking healthy over the next five years, providing a strong relative performance versus bonds and equities. We forecast total returns for global direct real estate and REITs to average 6.5% to 7% annually over 2022-2026, significantly above bonds and equities, which are projected to return 0.7% and 2.5% per annum, respectively.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 28, 2022

Omicron’s impact on Norway 2022 growth outlook appears to be mild

Ipad Frame - Norway-Omicrons-impact-on-the-2022-growth-outlook-appears-to-be-mild

We have lowered our mainland 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 4.2% to reflect the economic impact of the Omicron outbreak at the start of the year. Although Covid cases are still rising, the government has begun to gradually ease restrictions as hospitalisation rates have declined.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 28, 2022

Omicron’s impact on Norway 2022 growth outlook appears to be mild

Ipad Frame - Norway-Omicrons-impact-on-the-2022-growth-outlook-appears-to-be-mild

We have lowered our mainland 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 4.2% to reflect the economic impact of the Omicron outbreak at the start of the year. Although Covid cases are still rising, the government has begun to gradually ease restrictions as hospitalisation rates have declined.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 27, 2022

Rising risk of a higher inflation regime for global economy

Global | Rising risk of a higher inflation regime

The risk of a shift to a higher inflation regime in advanced economies has risen in the last six months, but markets may be under-pricing the risk in our view. The danger of a new inflation regime – 4% a year or more for several years – is greatest in the US, where we estimate the probability to be now 20%-25%.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 27, 2022

Rising risk of a higher inflation regime for global economy

Global | Rising risk of a higher inflation regime

The risk of a shift to a higher inflation regime in advanced economies has risen in the last six months, but markets may be under-pricing the risk in our view. The danger of a new inflation regime – 4% a year or more for several years – is greatest in the US, where we estimate the probability to be now 20%-25%.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 27, 2022

United Kingdom: A February rate hike is on a knife-edge

United Kingdom | A February rate hike is on a knife-edge

Whether or not the MPC raises Bank Rate in February is close to a 50:50 call. We marginally favour a hike because Omicron’s economic damage appears modest, the jobs market has tightened and the MPC is likely to significantly revise up its inflation forecast.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 27, 2022

United Kingdom: A February rate hike is on a knife-edge

United Kingdom | A February rate hike is on a knife-edge

Whether or not the MPC raises Bank Rate in February is close to a 50:50 call. We marginally favour a hike because Omicron’s economic damage appears modest, the jobs market has tightened and the MPC is likely to significantly revise up its inflation forecast.

Read more

Russia Ukraine
Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 27, 2022

Russia-Ukraine tensions: Asset market scenarios

Ipad Frame - Global-Russia-Ukraine-tensions-Asset-market-scenarios

Despite tensions continuing to ratchet higher, on a medium term view we think the balance of probabilities implies a buying opportunity for affected asset markets, regional and global. However, should Russia make an incursion into Ukraine beyond the currently disputed areas in eastern Ukraine, this would have significant implications for asset prices and volatility in the near-term.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 27, 2022

Russia-Ukraine tensions: Asset market scenarios

Ipad Frame - Global-Russia-Ukraine-tensions-Asset-market-scenarios

Despite tensions continuing to ratchet higher, on a medium term view we think the balance of probabilities implies a buying opportunity for affected asset markets, regional and global. However, should Russia make an incursion into Ukraine beyond the currently disputed areas in eastern Ukraine, this would have significant implications for asset prices and volatility in the near-term.

Read more

Parliament Japan
Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 26, 2022

Why Japan’s supplementary budget flatters to deceive

Why the supplementary budget flatters to deceive - iPad

Japan’s parliament has approved the latest supplementary budget, which includes the second-largest expenditure package in its history. But while the size of the budget has skyrocketed to cope with the effects of the pandemic, it’s not only the budget size that is key when assessing its impact on the economy.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 26, 2022

Why Japan’s supplementary budget flatters to deceive

Why the supplementary budget flatters to deceive - iPad

Japan’s parliament has approved the latest supplementary budget, which includes the second-largest expenditure package in its history. But while the size of the budget has skyrocketed to cope with the effects of the pandemic, it’s not only the budget size that is key when assessing its impact on the economy.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 25, 2022

Eurozone Recovery Tracker gains ground after a holiday dip

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker gains ground after a holiday dip

Our eurozone Recovery Tracker rose 1.4pts to 80.3 in the two weeks ending January 9. We view the reading with a bit of caution, as it may reflect a reflexive rebound following the Christmas dip rather than the start of a steady improvement, as high-frequency data tend to be noisy at the start of the year.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 25, 2022

Eurozone Recovery Tracker gains ground after a holiday dip

Eurozone | Recovery Tracker gains ground after a holiday dip

Our eurozone Recovery Tracker rose 1.4pts to 80.3 in the two weeks ending January 9. We view the reading with a bit of caution, as it may reflect a reflexive rebound following the Christmas dip rather than the start of a steady improvement, as high-frequency data tend to be noisy at the start of the year.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 25, 2022

EU fiscal rules: we expect reforms but no paradigm shift

EU fiscal rules: we expect reforms but no paradigm shift

We expect important changes to the EU’s fiscal governance framework, but no paradigm shift. Specifically, green and digital public investments will receive special treatment; the debt anchor and pace of adjustment will better reflect new realities; and emphasis will shift to checking expenditure growth. Thus, a fiscal cliff in 2023, when the rules are set to kick back in, will be avoided.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 25, 2022

EU fiscal rules: we expect reforms but no paradigm shift

EU fiscal rules: we expect reforms but no paradigm shift

We expect important changes to the EU’s fiscal governance framework, but no paradigm shift. Specifically, green and digital public investments will receive special treatment; the debt anchor and pace of adjustment will better reflect new realities; and emphasis will shift to checking expenditure growth. Thus, a fiscal cliff in 2023, when the rules are set to kick back in, will be avoided.

Read more

Blog|24 January 2022

Good things come to those who wait: The renewed importance of long-haul travel

Good things come to those who wait: The renewed importance of long-haul travel

The recovery in international travel is expected to begin in earnest this year, notwithstanding the risks posed by the emergence of the Omicron variant. Baseline projections are for global international arrivals in 2022 to recover to around 40% below 2019 volumes, following a trough of around -70% in 2020-21. The pace of recovery, however, will vary across regions and the haul (i.e., distance) of the travel taking place.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 24, 2022

Global urbanisation continues, led by rapid growth in African cities

Ipad Frame - Global-Cities-Urbanisation-continues-led-by-rapid-growth-in-African-cities

In the next two decades, the world’s 900 major cities will experience a combined population increase of nearly 600 million people. While the largest cities will continue to be in Asia, African cities are expected to grow the fastest. In contrast, many cities in Europe and East Asia will experience population declines over this period.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 24, 2022

Global urbanisation continues, led by rapid growth in African cities

Ipad Frame - Global-Cities-Urbanisation-continues-led-by-rapid-growth-in-African-cities

In the next two decades, the world’s 900 major cities will experience a combined population increase of nearly 600 million people. While the largest cities will continue to be in Asia, African cities are expected to grow the fastest. In contrast, many cities in Europe and East Asia will experience population declines over this period.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 24, 2022

Key themes for cities in 2022

Ipad Frame - Key-Themes-for-Cities-in-2022

Against a helpful macroeconomic background, albeit with risks, city economies will continue to recover in 2022. GDP growth will mostly be slower than in 2021, but with some cities accelerating (Amsterdam, Madrid), and/or seeing faster rises in employment and consumer spending.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 24, 2022

Key themes for cities in 2022

Ipad Frame - Key-Themes-for-Cities-in-2022

Against a helpful macroeconomic background, albeit with risks, city economies will continue to recover in 2022. GDP growth will mostly be slower than in 2021, but with some cities accelerating (Amsterdam, Madrid), and/or seeing faster rises in employment and consumer spending.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 21, 2022

Downside risks for UK from Omicron appear to be fading

United Kingdom | Downside risks from Omicron appear to be fading

Though the scale of December’s fall in retail sales came as a nasty surprise, it was not simply an Omicron story. We still think the Omicron hit to GDP will be small and short-lived, with the fall in case numbers and evidence of firming social consumption activity in the high-frequency data supporting this view.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 21, 2022

Downside risks for UK from Omicron appear to be fading

United Kingdom | Downside risks from Omicron appear to be fading

Though the scale of December’s fall in retail sales came as a nasty surprise, it was not simply an Omicron story. We still think the Omicron hit to GDP will be small and short-lived, with the fall in case numbers and evidence of firming social consumption activity in the high-frequency data supporting this view.

Read more

North America housing
Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 21, 2022

US and Canada housing affordability edged down in Q3

US and Canada housing affordability edged down in Q3 - iPad

Our updated Housing Affordability Indices (HAIs) show affordability declined in Q3 2021 at the national level in the US and Canada as income gains and slightly lower mortgage rates weren’t enough to keep up with house prices. Potential buyers found homes remained most out of reach in Vancouver, Boise (Idaho), Portland (Oregon), Toronto, Las Vegas, San Jose, L.A., and Hamilton (Ontario).

What you will learn:

  • Our national US index rose 1pt to 0.78 in Q3 2021 from 0.77 in Q2, meaning prices were 22% lower than the median income households’ borrowing capacity.
  • US affordability in Q3 2021 deteriorated most sharply in the Sunbelt metros, led by Tampa (+6.9pts), Las Vegas (+5.9pts), and Austin (+5.7pts).
  • Our Canada-wide HAI rose 1pt to 1.36 in Q3 2021, meaning houses were 36% above median income households’ borrowing capacity.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 21, 2022

US and Canada housing affordability edged down in Q3

US and Canada housing affordability edged down in Q3 - iPad

Our updated Housing Affordability Indices (HAIs) show affordability declined in Q3 2021 at the national level in the US and Canada as income gains and slightly lower mortgage rates weren’t enough to keep up with house prices. Potential buyers found homes remained most out of reach in Vancouver, Boise (Idaho), Portland (Oregon), Toronto, Las Vegas, San Jose, L.A., and Hamilton (Ontario).

What you will learn:

  • Our national US index rose 1pt to 0.78 in Q3 2021 from 0.77 in Q2, meaning prices were 22% lower than the median income households’ borrowing capacity.
  • US affordability in Q3 2021 deteriorated most sharply in the Sunbelt metros, led by Tampa (+6.9pts), Las Vegas (+5.9pts), and Austin (+5.7pts).
  • Our Canada-wide HAI rose 1pt to 1.36 in Q3 2021, meaning houses were 36% above median income households’ borrowing capacity.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 21, 2022

Eurozone weekly economic briefing | High inflation keeps fuelling debates

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-High-inflation-keeps-fuelling-debates

With eurozone inflation confirmed at a record-high of 5.0% y/y in December, the debate over how long upward price pressures will continue returned to the spotlight this week. In particular, after months of defending its dovish position, the ECB Governing Council now acknowledges a wider risk of inflation staying “higher for longer”.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 21, 2022

Eurozone weekly economic briefing | High inflation keeps fuelling debates

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-High-inflation-keeps-fuelling-debates

With eurozone inflation confirmed at a record-high of 5.0% y/y in December, the debate over how long upward price pressures will continue returned to the spotlight this week. In particular, after months of defending its dovish position, the ECB Governing Council now acknowledges a wider risk of inflation staying “higher for longer”.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 21, 2022

Council worried about a risk of higher medium-run inflation in the eurozone

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-Council-worried-about-a-risk-of-higher-medium-run-inflation

The release of the ECB December meeting minutes confirmed that inflation remained at the forefront of the Governing Council’s discussions last month. Notably, the assessment of the balance of risks to the inflation outlook seems to have shifted, with a risk of inflation staying “higher for longer” now more widely acknowledged.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 21, 2022

Council worried about a risk of higher medium-run inflation in the eurozone

Ipad Frame - Eurozone-Council-worried-about-a-risk-of-higher-medium-run-inflation

The release of the ECB December meeting minutes confirmed that inflation remained at the forefront of the Governing Council’s discussions last month. Notably, the assessment of the balance of risks to the inflation outlook seems to have shifted, with a risk of inflation staying “higher for longer” now more widely acknowledged.

Read more

Cracked brick wall painted with a Ukrainian flag on the left and a Russian flag on the right
Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 20, 2022

Ukraine’s sovereign Eurobonds are a bargain despite risks

Ipad Frame - Ukraine-Sovereign-Eurobonds-are-a-bargain-despite-risks

Ukraine’s sovereign Eurobond yields soared since mid-November when US sources first reported a build-up of Russian troops along its eastern border. We retain an overweight on Ukraine’s Eurobonds. We think markets are pricing in too high a risk of invasion and default.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 20, 2022

Ukraine’s sovereign Eurobonds are a bargain despite risks

Ipad Frame - Ukraine-Sovereign-Eurobonds-are-a-bargain-despite-risks

Ukraine’s sovereign Eurobond yields soared since mid-November when US sources first reported a build-up of Russian troops along its eastern border. We retain an overweight on Ukraine’s Eurobonds. We think markets are pricing in too high a risk of invasion and default.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 20, 2022

US Recovery Tracker hobbles into 2022

US Recovery Tracker hobbles into 2022 - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker fell 0.7ppts to 97.1 in the first week of January, down for a fourth straight week. With the holiday season drag now largely in the rear-view mirror, Omicron’s rapid spread and a more hawkish Fed drove the tracker to its lowest reading since April 2021.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 20, 2022

US Recovery Tracker hobbles into 2022

US Recovery Tracker hobbles into 2022 - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker fell 0.7ppts to 97.1 in the first week of January, down for a fourth straight week. With the holiday season drag now largely in the rear-view mirror, Omicron’s rapid spread and a more hawkish Fed drove the tracker to its lowest reading since April 2021.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 20, 2022

European Key Themes 2022: CEE is in for an eventful year

Key Themes 2022: CEE is in for an eventful year

After emerging as an outperformer in early 2021, the Central and Eastern European region is set to face an eventful year in 2022. This year should see brisk growth as the region’s economies recover from the pandemic and households begin to unwind their savings. But the recovery will be uneven, with threats from political uncertainty and high inflation risks.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 20, 2022

European Key Themes 2022: CEE is in for an eventful year

Key Themes 2022: CEE is in for an eventful year

After emerging as an outperformer in early 2021, the Central and Eastern European region is set to face an eventful year in 2022. This year should see brisk growth as the region’s economies recover from the pandemic and households begin to unwind their savings. But the recovery will be uneven, with threats from political uncertainty and high inflation risks.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 20, 2022

Global Coronavirus Watch: New hurdles for supply chains

After expanding strongly in Q2, global GDP growth slowed in Q3 in response to the Delta disruption and ongoing supply chain problems.

Read more

Back to Resource Hub
Research Briefing | Jan 20, 2022

Global Coronavirus Watch: New hurdles for supply chains

After expanding strongly in Q2, global GDP growth slowed in Q3 in response to the Delta disruption and ongoing supply chain problems.

Read more

Also of Interest