Research Briefing | Jan 20, 2022

US Recovery Tracker hobbles into 2022

US Recovery Tracker hobbles into 2022 - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker fell 0.7ppts to 97.1 in the first week of January, down for a fourth straight week. With the holiday season drag now largely in the rear-view mirror, Omicron’s rapid spread and a more hawkish Fed drove the tracker to its lowest reading since April 2021.

What you will learn:

  • Health conditions stood at their worst in 10 months, while demand weakened sharply. Financial conditions tightened, and mobility softened.
  • Our State Recovery Trackers were split between gains and losses. The West lost the most ground, while the South and Midwest strengthened the most.
  • Covid case rates are showing signs of slowing in mid-January, but the sharp drop in December retail sales amid elevated consumer and business caution signal that the economy is suffering an early winter chill.
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