US Recovery Tracker hobbles into 2022
The US Recovery Tracker fell 0.7ppts to 97.1 in the first week of January, down for a fourth straight week. With the holiday season drag now largely in the rear-view mirror, Omicron’s rapid spread and a more hawkish Fed drove the tracker to its lowest reading since April 2021.
What you will learn:
- Health conditions stood at their worst in 10 months, while demand weakened sharply. Financial conditions tightened, and mobility softened.
- Our State Recovery Trackers were split between gains and losses. The West lost the most ground, while the South and Midwest strengthened the most.
- Covid case rates are showing signs of slowing in mid-January, but the sharp drop in December retail sales amid elevated consumer and business caution signal that the economy is suffering an early winter chill.
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After a choppy first quarter of GDP data, our novel Activity Trackers (which incorporate proprietary daily sentiment data from Penta) suggest that economic momentum in EM Asia is on a softer trend in Q2 (at least outside of China) supporting our view of easing underlying inflationary pressures and diminishing appetite for further rate hikes.Find Out More
What AI means for economies, businesses, jobs & cities
Artificial Intelligence has the potential to fix the world's productivity problems, just as previous general purpose technologies such as steam power, electricity, and computers have, in our view.Find Out More