Research Briefing | Jan 20, 2022

US Recovery Tracker hobbles into 2022

US Recovery Tracker hobbles into 2022 - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker fell 0.7ppts to 97.1 in the first week of January, down for a fourth straight week. With the holiday season drag now largely in the rear-view mirror, Omicron’s rapid spread and a more hawkish Fed drove the tracker to its lowest reading since April 2021.

What you will learn:

  • Health conditions stood at their worst in 10 months, while demand weakened sharply. Financial conditions tightened, and mobility softened.
  • Our State Recovery Trackers were split between gains and losses. The West lost the most ground, while the South and Midwest strengthened the most.
  • Covid case rates are showing signs of slowing in mid-January, but the sharp drop in December retail sales amid elevated consumer and business caution signal that the economy is suffering an early winter chill.
Back to Resource Hub

Related research

Post

US inflation still slowing, but not fast enough for seniors

The spotlight focused on this week’s consumer price report to see if it raises more questions about the Fed’s decision to cut rates so aggressively at its mid-September meeting.

Find Out More

Post

The US consumer will remain a pillar of strength

We are significantly raising our forecasts for consumer spending growth over the next few years. We expect real consumption growth to accelerate to 2.7% in 2025, up from our previous forecast of a slowdown to 2.1%.

Find Out More