Research Briefing | Jan 20, 2022

US Recovery Tracker hobbles into 2022

US Recovery Tracker hobbles into 2022 - iPad

The US Recovery Tracker fell 0.7ppts to 97.1 in the first week of January, down for a fourth straight week. With the holiday season drag now largely in the rear-view mirror, Omicron’s rapid spread and a more hawkish Fed drove the tracker to its lowest reading since April 2021.

What you will learn:

  • Health conditions stood at their worst in 10 months, while demand weakened sharply. Financial conditions tightened, and mobility softened.
  • Our State Recovery Trackers were split between gains and losses. The West lost the most ground, while the South and Midwest strengthened the most.
  • Covid case rates are showing signs of slowing in mid-January, but the sharp drop in December retail sales amid elevated consumer and business caution signal that the economy is suffering an early winter chill.
Back to Resource Hub

Related research

Office building in London

Post

High debt costs suggest European office price correction

Our analysis suggests a 10% correction is needed on average for the major office markets in Europe to compensate for the higher cost of debt, with prime yields required to soften by 10bps-75bps to generate a low-risk interest coverage ratio at a reasonable LTV.

Find Out More

Post

Why an ageing population doesn’t mean soaring inflation

What’s the future for inflation? Joachim Nagel, the new president of Germany's central bank, believes the rapidly ageing global population will play a key role – ramping up pressure on prices in the medium term. While we agree slowing labour supply will stifle output growth, in his recent discussion Nagel failed to fully consider the demand side of the argument.

Find Out More